Create Demand, Price Follows... $SPS soon to hit $.014285 if my guess is right...
Good morning Splinterfriends,
Today is a REALLY simple post and I hope it will help you with some ideas but it is most certainly NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
A couple days ago, @splinterlands posted the proposal about the new mini set:
At the time of the post, $SPS was trading at $.0072 USD per SPS...
However, one of the key points and probably most misunderstood points was the pricing of the packs:
Credits: $5 or 5,000 DEC
DEC: $5 or 5,000 DEC
SPS: $5 or 350 $SPS
USDC?: $5 (possible option)
A partial Goal for this was to increase the SPS Balance to further fund the Reward Pools. This is a good thing - I doubt anyone would say otherwise, right?
Then this Proposal mentioned a "DISCOUNT" for buying packs in SPS and people went bonkers.
Let me be very, Very, VERY clear - I deal with this sort of thing all the time... YOU GUYS SKIPPED OVER A CRITICAL PIECE OF INFORMATION...
Here's where I deal with the same issue at work, every single day...
Do you know what question I get asked nearly EVERY SINGLE TIME?!?
Well - they do... BUT... The Dealership is not the Issuing Party, thus the critical word that everyone's brain just DELETES for some reason... "No... DEALER... Warranty"
Which is clearly very different from: "No Warranty".
So, how are these two things related? How is my issue with clients misinterpreting the FTC Buyers Guide similar to this proposal...
Simple: the Proposal priced the packs the EXACT SAME
$5 in DEC
$5 in Credits
$5 in USDC perhaps?
$5 in SPS
The ONLY DIFFERENCE... the ONLY "DISCOUNT" for $SPS (and DEC tbf) is they are pricing it with the assumption of future value being $SPS is $.014285... How do I know this???
Let us do some simple math:
Credits: 5,000 Credits = $5 USD = $.001 USD Per Credit... ✅
USDC?: 5 USDC = $5 USD = $1 USD Per USDC... ✅
DEC: 5,000 DEC = $4.225 USD = $.0008456 USD Per DEC... ✅
SPS (at $.0072): 350 SPS = $2.52 USD = $.0072 USD Per $SPS = ✅
SPS (at $.014285): 350 SPS = $4.9975 = $.014285 USD Per $SPS = ✅
I know what you're thinking... "Ok Dingus... but what's the POINT?!?"
The point is... THERE IS NO "DISCOUNT". There is only a DIFFERENCE between CURRENT $SPS Valuation and the GUARANTEED PRICE of each pack, in SPS at the time of it's release...
Which means... if someone wanted to buy a WHOLE BUNCH of this Mini Set... at roughly 50% off... they could buy a WHOLE BUNCH of SPS at current Market Prices...
IF. THEY. CHOSE. TO. DO. THAT... They could use the SPS to buy the Packs... at the GUARANTEED RATE... or... pay with DEC/Credits... Possibly USDC?
The moment $SPS > $.014285 or 1,000 DEC = $1.00 again... THE "DISCOUNT GOES AWAY"...
Now... with that being said... one could also think... but what if I bought a bunch of SPS now and sold it during the pre-sale at the higher price... assuming it gets there...
Well then... let's take a look at what $SPS price has done in the last 36h...
Well... there you have it... Price Action over the last 36h and the "Target" at the top, where the "DISCOUNT" goes away...
There, I hope that helped... what you do with this info... that's up to you... but I know what I'm doing :P
That's all I have for you today folks!! Thank you for reading and I would LOVE for you to join me in game!!
Naturally, after everything leading up to this moment, I believe Splinterlands is one of the BEST web3 games out there!
It brings the #play2earn feature to the forefront of development as well as many opportunities for people to earn rewards - whether Player or Investor!!
If you're interested in the future of gaming, it's worth checking out!
You can sign up here: Splinterlands
Cheers 🍻,
- CaptainDingus
#Splinterlands #Hive #ConclaveArcana #Presale #SPS #DEC #play2earn #web3 #NFTGaming #Rebellion #Conflicts #SurvivalMode #RentalMarket #CardRentals
SPS has broken out. Now is it a false breakout or a real breakout? Time will tell.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/SPSUSDT/?timeframe=12M
The problem with all this is that it will turn out as just a fake artificial pump. You can't just set an arbitrary price on SPS for pack purchases at a higher price, expecting it will be worth that. People will buy now only with the reason to dump at a higher price or buy the packs cheaper. All of this is also just stealing value from existing card holders as they will see their already crushed assets get dilluted even more.
I hear you but here is where I disagree...
Future thought: the next DEC event will see SPS burned for DEC and again a supply reduction in SPS...
This is a fantastic way to ensure the Reward pool gets filled with SPS and benefits those jumping in early, the most...
The DAO gets their SPS Reward Pool refilled... early jumpers get roughly a 50% discount...
How is this a bad thing???
They can't just continue to print tons of extra cards all the time while there allready is a massive oversupply. It will devalue cards more and fewer players will be willing to buy them anymore. The system will also be flooded with a ton extra DEC that is now sitting locked in the dao.
It just isn't a strategy that works long term always using the same trick of 'we need something, ok lets print a bunch of extra cards".
I guess we'll see what it does for the price of SPS even though I'm quite sure it will end up as a temporary pump & dump.
I feel that but 2 sets per year is not a lot of extra cards and is in line with what most other companies do - like MTG
The point here is BUY SPS! It has aways been the best asset in Splinterlands and now it got even more utility.
Great breakdown! I really appreciate how you clarified the SPS pricing — especially the point that it’s not a true “discount”, but simply the gap between the current market price and the implied $0.0143/SPS rate. That distinction was very helpful.
From my side, I’d add a few extra thoughts:
The fact that packs can also be bought with SPS and USDC is huge: it gives SPS more utility while reinforcing the DAO treasury with both SPS (for rewards) and stablecoins (for stability).
Compared to Conclave Arcana, this mini set feels like the missing piece, and the much lower number of packs makes it way more scarce and exclusive.
One thing I think is crucial this time is a shop dashboard showing packs sold, packs remaining, and total revenues in DEC/SPS/USDC (plus USD equivalent). In CA this data wasn’t easily visible, and that killed some of the excitement. Transparency + a visual tracker would build hype and even FOMO, which is exactly what the sale needs.
Overall, your analysis plus these elements make me even more confident that this proposal is a win-win for the DAO and SPS holders.
Thanks Meredorn!
I think that was the biggest issue - the "discount" is only when compared to assumed "Future Value" and of course if it never reaches that... you can always buy at a "discount"...
But with where we are in the overall Crypto Cycle... I think this is well timed!
But we shall see :)
(Come play Frontier if you haven't started yet 😃)
As always, your analyses and posts are very interesting. Excellent choice of the car warranty example to explain. At the same time, I still think that without a ranked league where it is possible to use wild cards without bots and wild passes, buying cards will become less and less appealing...the wild card charts show this very problem, but it does not seem to be a priority issue to solve, whereas for me it is.
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 20/30) Liquid rewards.
Understandable concern about the Wild Cards - I think that's going to fall into the low priority "More Players = Problem Solved" bucket for now...
We shall see though - I am curious to see how this plays out and I could be wrong.
I don't think I am though due to the timing of the set and Crypto Cycle...
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