Rebellion, The Last Mile - Part 2

This is the second week of documenting the last days of the Rebellion Core Set. You can find Part 1 of this series here .

Before I begin with the Rebellion stuff, I realized this past week that I forgot to mention and give credit to my valuable source of information, which is none other than the amazing website splintercards.com, created by @tehox . The wealth of information a Splinterlands player can find on the Splintercards website is insane, and my Splinterlands journey wouldn't have been the same without it (I would have massively overpaid for the cards I have bought). So thank you @tehox for this gem you've created!

Back to Rebellion now. Who is winning this battle, the bulls or the bears? The Chaos Empire, or the Rebels?

The bears are winning for now. Unless the bulls hibernate until we reach the final countdown in terms of packs. What this means is that the Rebellion pack sales didn't move much this week, and to be honest there is still no reason for this to happen. There are still over 1 million Rebellion packs available for sale, but give it another week of pack burning and this will change very soon 😉 .

So, in a nutshell, here is how the sales, the burning of packs, and the DAO holdings changed last week (going from left to right, top to bottom):

It may not be visible at a first glance, but we crossed an important milestone this week. There are now less than 60k Rebellion packs circulating! Less than 59k, to be precise, if you take a look at the last day of the week (that's November 5th, 2024). To the best of my knowledge, this is the lowest this number has ever been ever since Rebellion was released. Of course, one has to keep in mind that the DAO will be eventually holding close to 1 Million packs itself, and these packs may be sold at some point, but suffice it to say that if they are sold at a price of $5 or more, then our current analysis isn't affected by what may happen then, as Rebellion will be holding its value pretty well.

Let's now have a look at the company's sales this week:

Please note that I am not taking the screenshot from Splintercards at the exact same moment each day, so the daily numbers are approximations (some packs may have actually been sold on the next or the previous day) but the weekly sales are accurate. This week the Company sold 2055 Rebellion packs, which is very very close to the packs sold last week (2084 Rebellion packs). Not much traction yet, but understandably so.

Regarding the circulating packs, one thing is clear. People do not treat Rebellion packs as an investment, at least not yet. Maybe as we get closer to December 20 (the end of the Rebellion era) people will start speculating some more, but for now packs are simply packs, as they were meant to be. People buy them and open them, speculating on their content rather than on their future price.

Who are the people holding these packs? Here are the top 20 Rebellion pack holders:

Forget about the null account. This is the account where all the burned assets go, which means that the first line just shows how many packs have been burned. Also, the DAO packs are not liquid at the time being, but they might soon be. Other than that, the king is @bravetofu followed closely by @josieb . As a matter of fact, I have seen JosieB selling Rebellion packs on the secondary market, so one can expect the circulating supply to be reduced by another ~1800 packs, assuming she sells everything (getting ready for Conclave Arcana, @josieb)?

I don't know what the rest of the pack holders will do, but please note that these are not big numbers. If we take a look at the Chaos Legion set for comparison, which was massively overprinted, I am currently holding ~1900 Chaos Legion packs which would place me at the 4th place in the chart above. Needless to say, I am not one of the top Chaos Legion pack holders. I am sitting at #161, but to my surprise, I am holding more Chaos Legion packs than @mattclarke which makes me both an OG and a whale (just kidding, Matt probably opens every pack he gets in order to use them on Land).

One last remark for this week. As I am writing these lines on the US Presidential election day, there are 58,981 circulating packs, and the number of Rebellion packs that have been opened is 904,205. The ratio of circulating packs to opened packs is just 6.5%. Therefore, in principle, even if all the circulating packs are opened, the Rebellion card prices won't fall by more than 6.5% of where they currently are, assuming there are no mass liquidation events taking place (like whales quitting the game or selling Rebellion to buy Conclave Arcana). The DAO held packs are another story, and these can definitely move the market, if they are ever sold.

That's about it for this week. Enjoy the election day folks, and I'll be back with another update for Rebellion next week.