An end to Splinterlands or a breather from the frenzied cash grab?
I invested a few thousand into Splinterlands and at one point had close to $30,000 in the game (playing account and investment account combined). As you can guess my investment right now is worth a tiny fraction of that amount.
Take a look. SPS which was 90 cents before is down to under 20 cents.
DEC which used to be worth 1.2 cents each is worth only .4 now--worth only a third of what it was.
And if I was to look ahead I wouldn't be surprised to see things continue their downward slide from here.
YES, it hurts
NO, I'm not giving up on the game
Which leads to the question: Why not?
1. My guild: Can't leave a great group of people
2. I like the game and its only getting better with a strong development team
3. New players can finally start to afford getting into the game
I don't know where Splinterlands will end up. I don't know where the price of the coins will go in time.
I do know that it is a game with makes a link between gameplay and real world value. I do know that it has a link between social media and real world value. I think that link will prove to be extremely value in the years to come so right now things look pretty bleak.
On the bright side though: Upgrading my guild has gotten a lot cheaper!
I may actually be able to afford some nice cards so I can join events and actually have a chance of winning.
And I have some great guildmates to talk with while I enjoy my game. Who knows someone maybe even give me a ONEUP on occassion of drop a slice of PIZZA my way.
Thanks for reading
!PIZZA
Stick with it man >:D I think the value here on HIVE and in Splinterlands will be amazing in a few years!
Gotta love the Pizza! Yes, I'm certainly sticking with it because as you said, amazing in a few years...but got to get through the SPS airdrop (giveaway) and Chaos from Chaos League and wait for land to roll out :)
Then we can all throw a Pizza party, right :)
It does suck how hard things are dropping right now. I think it is mostly due to a combination of factors though. Once a few of these sort themselves out there will probably be an uptick across the board.
The entire market is down right now. Splinterlands follows that trend. I haven't watched too closely but BTC and ETH just dropped another 5% today I think.
Kind of predicted the release of Chaos Legion would actually cause a steep decline in value inside the game. And that seems to be playing a part. An instant flood of assets to a market will almost always cause a decline in value.
I think this is going to be short term true but mid-long term not true. While the Chaos works itself out, card prices especially will continue to fall or stagnate IMO. So that's another couple months probably. In addition, as long as the crypto market as a whole continues to drop, it will be tough for anything to gain an upward momentum.
However, once chaos settles, card prices will rebound. Once they add more utility for SPS, it will also go up. DEC will follow as long as people are using it to buy cards and get airdrops.
The game (reportedly...) has half a million daily active players. If it were on Steam, that would put it around 5th most actively played game of ALL TIME. I think the player base numbers are massively inflated but I do think there is a good chunk of people steadily playing the game.
With all that said. Unless people just quit in droves or the entire crypto market continues to decline, I think sometime between end of January and April, we will see a massive spike across all assets in Splinterlands.
I wish I was as optimistic as you are but I don't see a rebound by April. If I was to pull out my crystal ball (which is faulty most of the time). I'd see things like this: Continued fall for the next month as people pull their SPS out because of the stop in the double voucher drop. Then there will be a drop in card prices as Chaos packs go into general sale. Expect a few million to go quickly and then things will get really slow for a while. SPS continues to drop as it keeps getting printed with small demand.
Then land comes out making a use case for SPS and the SPS has a sharp rise followed by a gradual decline.
Then in the long term there is a gradual increase in player base as the cards are cheap and entry is easy. The gameplay and ability to make real money get more people into the game. As the story gets fleshed out, Player vs environment is introduced. Land gets firmly entrenched for even better gameplay. Guilds take over the land to make for region wars. Events get better known for more competitive play... then things start to take off again.
Once the Chaos packs are sold out, SPS is no longer airdropped and people start seeing new players and increased value in the game...
.... then things take off and we will be glad that we didn't bail at this tough time :)
Just my two cents worth
Could be a little longer than April I suppose. But I think the price of stuff is dictated more by market trends than game features. I think most of the heavy investors in the game treat it like any other crypto, pumping and dumping based on trends. Game features can kind of influence things but not nearly as much as heavy investors.
Case in point would be SPS and the pre-sale. It reached over $1 right at the start and if it was more reliant on in-game use it would have kept going up since its first real use had finally arrived. Instead it has steadily fallen since. And that is most likely because investors started dumping it since it was so high and the market as a whole was headed downward, they didn't really care about vouchers and chaos packs. They weren't staking. They were just holding millions of SPS, that gained them a 50-100% profit in a couple months and the time had come to dump it.
So most of my optimism is because I think the market as a whole rebounds sometime in the next few months. Splinterlands follows. Investors will probably just see SPS and DEC as an opportunity to pump again, regardless of what they do in game. So when you see heavy orders start showing up, that will be an indicator where the market is going.
Of course, the market is somewhat unpredictable. At least to those of us that don't have the millions needed to pump and dump on their own.
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It can be discouraging to see your assets decrease in price, but they still hold some value. If you are in for the long run, it's probably going to pay off.
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