SplinterMind Conclave
As often is the case these days -
I am in two minds.
Do I buy packs for CONCLAVE ARCANA or do I not?
And if I do, what packs do I buy? Because now there are options that come with different percentage chances to get the new "Black Foil" skins, or a guaranteed legendary in the pack, or whatever else there is in the presale. The problem is, those percentages are meaningless to me, because as many will attest, my chances of pulling Gold Foil Legendaries in the past, no matter how high I am on the leaderboards, is fucking atrocious. I mean - ludicrously fucking bad. So bad, that people who consider themselves unlucky, use me as the example to cheer themselves up and say
"At least my luck isn't as bad as that poor fucker..."
@azircon and @abh12345 have both said "maybe this time will be different". @revisesociology knows the deal for me though and is a realist, so when I asked about the chance percentages for black foils he said, "for everyone else, or for you?"
Probability zero.
And this puts me in a sticky situation, because as much as I would like to get some packs, my many past experiences have left me very, very disappointed, while others are ecstatic at the opens they get. It is much like my 50% chance of retaliate or poison, that seems to work 25% of the time. At what point do I cut losses and just say,
Fuck this shit.
Not today apparently.
Because I did end up buying some packs, and will put the current numbers here to see what the outcome will be, once I apply all the potions, including midnight to open.
Currently, I don't have enough Midnight Potions for all, but I will wait to open until later. However, for Conclave Arcana, Legendary potions double both the chances for Legendary cards, and Epic cards also. This means that while I am nowhere near having enough for a max deck, perhaps once the starter packs go on sale I will be able to get the Common and Rares there, and not need too many Epics. I shouldn't need any Legendary cards, or I should have plenty to trade for what I am missing.
If someone wants to do the math on what I "should" get using all potions on the 200 Legendary packs, feel free.
There is also a "raffle" of 71 cards with ticket entries based on purchase volume. I am currently ranked outside the top 30 in purchases, but I assume that I will get zero of those, as again, I have terrible, terrible, fucking terrible luck with any of this supposedly random outcomes.
Will my luck change?
Unfortunately, I have very little hope, which means that this might be the last significant purchase I make in Splinterlands. But with the little sliver of hope I hold still, I do hope my luck will change and I can continue playing the game feeling better about it. And I really , really hope that my conflict luck will be better than last time also.
Will my black luck be better than my gold?
I am sceptical.
But I doubled-down still.
Taraz
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Black Foils got me in two minds too! 🤔 Gotta weigh those pack options carefully. Good luck!
Good luck to you too!
I thought you stopped playing Splinterlands as the price of the coin went down.
Nah, I am one of the few that plays for the game itself too. :)
I also don't have as much luck on gold foils with my rebellion packs purchase but still hoping to get something good in Conclave Arcana. And there was also the yabapmatt card that is included in packs.
Which one is this?
And good luck mate!
They were promo cards with limited copies and were included inside the packs. I'm not sure why they did not made a post about it since it has been announced since Friday so was in the middle of making a post about it.
Ah - yeah I saw something about these, but had no idea what they were - drop me a link to your post later, just in case I miss it.
Everyone's focus was on the presale leaderboard and the team must have tons of backend work to do for when CA will be release, reason for the lack of post. I've gone to bed right away after making the post since its election day in my country and I want to vote early so I missed the reply. Thanks for the support.😁
It is all goodm I found the post and followed :)
I haven't played Splinterlands for a long time, but after reading Hive, I decided to play this game again. I rented gold cards and SPS for $12 and now I play in gold 1st league with a small profit. I did it not for the profit, but for the fun of following this project. And sometimes I need to kill time. And damn - I like playing this game :)
It is a pretty good way to kill a bit of time for sure - and kill some money too....
I also bought 5 legendary packs. @azircon suggested that I should buy alchemy packs instead. But like you I have no drawing luck. So considering that with alchemy packs I would probably get no legendary or epic cards...
My crystal ball says that you will get 20 Black Foil legendaries. But I suck at math...
A low possibility means that it is not zero.That being said I would not bet on either of us getting rich from our purchases...But maybe I am wrong. Maybe all 5 my guaranteed legendary cards will be Black Foil and I will be able toretirecontinue blogging without worrying about money.I assume this won't be the case. It would be brilliant if I got a whole set of black :D
I wonder what the actual odds are on that happening.
You are due a change of luck, hopefully this will be it!
How does the math work with Legendary packs when you get one guaranteed? Does the 1% chance only then apply to the other 4 or something? I guess that's the only way it would make any sense! So you should get 150 plus another 1 and a bit.
Yeah, but using potions, that should be double right? And then, how many golds are expected? Any blacks?
I've spent so little I have no expectations of getting anything. I noticed Bubke didn't appear on the league table, wonder if he's quit?
Don't know about bubke - I think his account just bots
Hopefully a good decision!
You will be guaranteed some nice cards but I'm not sure about being dropped one of the nicest.
Ah.. Today's the day! I should get my house in order and work out how many potions I need/want. I was wondering if I should get enough for the snazzy packs and enough for half the standard packs, but it seems wrong not to be fully potioned up!
I am not sure about the potions either, and whether I will wait and get them all opened with them later, as I don't have enough potions now. I need heaps more!
Roughly 13000 for me, I have about half
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STOPI am amazed on how much the few hardcore players continue to dive into these presales despite the uncertainty. I think of it as entertainment at this point and the real raffles tickets are the assets...
Yeah, it is entertaining to see how much can be wasted!!
Did you buy some packs this time around?
Statistically you should not always have bad luck. If you buy in large enough numbers you should get the expected numbers.
It is good to see that you still believe in the project despite your very bad luck in the past. Like others said hopefully this time your luck will change. Good luck!
In reality though...
I have found this to be untrue! :D
And good luck to you also :)
It is amazing that game has persisted so solidly for so long. Is that much fun, rewardy, or is it just that assets have token value it is not worth cashing out or walking away from?
I am hoping I catch one of those hive games on the bottom floor and have some fun/ build some value by tacking it onto my daily curation habit.
I have a feeling your luck will change! 🍀 here ya go!
The "holders dilemma" :D
They need to be something more than a card game from now on. Hopefully @holozing brings something new.
I do wish you the best of luck! At least a little more than you had... I'm usually not that lucky, either, but I never went in that big as I did this time. Just finished a post about it, if you care to read. Talking about being a little conflicted about spending so much money on a game as well...
I get that. I'm hoping, too. I'll keep track of all my "gains" from the pre-sale and what comes afterwards, and will hopefully be able to compete in the middle-field on all fronts. And next time, I will be big enough to buy as much as you did this time, but from in-game and hive earnings :-D
Have a great Sunday!
Wouldn't that be awesome!! Unfortunately, none of this came from in-game...
Well, there's a goal for next time ;-)
Ah yes, I know all too well the bad luck that comes with pulling NFTs. I suffered from that bad luck over and over when I was heavy into them on WAX. I think maybe once I got lucky. Okay, maybe twice! I hope you have better luck this time!
I have 4 Gold Foils from the Alpha packs …. is that Good ?
Just saw your black arcane pull in-game, congratulations!