Intrinsic Value of Conclave Arcana Packs. What is Your PreSale Strategy?

After being with the Splinterlands game for around 4 years now and living through the Chaos Legion Core Set, it's quite exciting to see how the upcoming core sets will change the landscape of this game.

The Chaos Legion era was during a period of NFT game hype for which a lot of packs were printed out in anticipation of a booming market. Players dwindled; thus, the oversupply led to the reduction of value of assets. It left a bad taste in the mouth.

While additional mechanisms were put in place to address card supply such as the gradual burning of packs, there was not much demand for succeeding expansions such as Riftwatcher and Rebellion. It is quite hard to find leveled up cards in these sets.

Presale Date	Set Name	Presale Supply	Total Market Supply	PreSale Price	Price as of April 2025	% Delta
Late 2019	Untamed	1,500,000	1,500,000	$2.00	$7.68	284%
Oct 18, 2001	Chaos Legion	1,000,000	15,000,000	$4.00	$0.56	-86%
Sep 15, 2022	Riftwatcher	500,000	3,000,000	$5	$1.32	-73.6%
Oct 18,2023	Rebellion	500,000	9,420,627	$3.125 (base)	$4.32	28%
Apr 22, 2025	Conclave Arena	500,000 packs; 100,000 Alchemy, 50,000 legendary	4,500,000 packs; 900,000 Alchemy, 450,000 legendary	$4 (Standard)	N/A	N/A

There was no burning mechanism yet under Chaos Legion. Look at that massive 15M packs!

Riftwatchers is a mini-set under Chaos Legion. So once CL moves into wild, that includes RW! Its selling price was also relatively high.

Starting with Rebellion, we see the benefit of the burning mechanism. Secondary market price is a bit lower but not too far off. Rebellion is part of the Modern core set. If we base it from here, holding packs seem to be a viable strategy!

Question: Are You Buying into the Conclave Arcana PreSale?

I've always been a prudent buyer so for me, the question is: Is it worth buying packs or should I just buy straight off the secondary market?

The introduction of new packs is very interesting and an innovative concept. There are now many ways to get cards and at different price points. So let's start with the probability distribution of the card rarities and foils. Information gathered from their official post.

Next is the tricky part. In order to calculate for intrinsic value, I have to come up with DEC values for each rarity and foil. The values here is just an assumption and based on Rebellion market data as of today. I also get the median value since the prices do vary. Didn't include black foil here for now since we don't have a basis yet for its pricing.

To simplify, I used chatgpt to estimate the average DEC price for 1 common RF card and then just use a multiplier in relation to that for all other rarities and foils. Let's use 115 DEC for this simulation.

Intrinsic Value of Packs

	Starter	Standard	Alchemy	Legendary
Pack Price	1,000	4,000	12,000	24,000
Expected Value	839.5	2,136.26	6,342.76	16,717.14
Cost Ratio	83.95%	53.41%	52.86%	69.65%

If we compare the Pack Selling price and the Expected Value based from my tables above, the cost ratio (Expected Value/Pack Price) of the Presale packs is between 47-60% only. Starter packs have better cost ratio, but overall they are all < 100%. This means it would be better to buy off from the secondary market as you only gain back around 50-70% of the value in packs. Again, let me reiterate that this simulation is based on Rebellion market prices. So we can play around this assumed price for common which can improve the Expected Value of the packs.

What Else Do you Get From Participating in the PreSale?

By participating in the presale, you’ll:
-Receive limited-edition promo-card airdrops (Rare and Legendary)
-Compete on the Presale Leaderboard for exclusive prizes
-Earn entries into the Presale Raffle for a chance to win ultra-rare cards

Of course, the ones listed above adds value into buying Presale packs, but not sure if it is enough to cover the value gap.

• Prices of cards go higher than assumed - If demand is high (like during the Chaos Legion hype)
• Arcane cards can add at least 10% to the pack intrinsic value
• LImited edition promo cards seem to give great value. Spend 40k DEC and get 25% discount (through the rare promo) and additional 10% discount if you spend 400k DEC (through the legendary promo)

PreSale Strategies:

Option A - Practicality Route (Gamer)
If you have budget constraint and just want to play the game, just wait and buy off from the secondary market. This reduces your market risk as you get to buy the cards you want and need.

Option B - Speculative Mode (Trader) - Buy and Hold Packs
As packs get burned through time, higher chances to get arcane cards; pack value can go higher later on. Based on the intrinsic values shared above, seems like getting Legendary packs have the best value for money. Although, it seems overvalued by 30%, excluding the raffles and promos attached to the presale.

Option C - Speculative Mode (Businessman)
Open packs and immediately sell at Market. This is viable only if the value of cards are higher than the one assumed in this simulation (i.e. 1 common card = 115 DEC).

Personally, I might just have a limit of spending up to 400k DEC. At least this will give me around 10 rare promos and 1 legendary promo ( I should sell immediately to recoup my costs). Whether I open and sell immediately or just hold packs depends on ongoing market prices. For my game usage, I will definitely rent cards first and buy once market prices have become stable.

How about you? How are you preparing for this PreSale?

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Computations done here may not be accurate and based on certain assumptions. It's also dependent on my prompting for chatGPT. I'd be happy to compare notes with the others if someone was able to do the same. Cheers!