Hunt For Shiny Pickle Hits A Lull: Fortune Draw Winners Mint #21-30

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Hello there! @saydie here, playing Splinterlands everyday!


It's been more than 30 days since the start of the Yaba's Pickle Arcane Event, with 30 out of the 50 GF Arcane Pickles, each with unique mint numbers, distributed to the lucky winners. The only way that players can participate in this event is by using Fortune Ticket, which is a new type of item that can be crafted by using a Land resource called 200 AURA and 10 Vouchers that will be burned upon use as well as by spending 200 DEC that will go to the company and the Dao at equal split. Each entry used gives a chance for a GF Arcane Pickle, but even when you do not win, you can still get a regular copy of the card.

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Gold Foil Arcane Event Mint #21-30 Winners

Compared to the first 10 days of its event, it seems that we have now hit a lull where Fortune Ticket entries continue to drop, even though in theory, the lower the mint number of the card, the more it becomes desirable for card collectors, and thus, will use more entries to secure a copy of the card. The Tashoshi Drakamoto Arcane Event may be one of the reasons for the drop in entries, as that requires 10 tickets for an entry, but that already concluded 6 days ago, so that does not entirely explain why the entries continue to drop. Anyways, here are the stats for the winners of Mint 21-30 Arcane Pickle.

DateMint#Total EntriesWinnersWinner EntriesOdds
08/19/2530210 img_lottery-draw2.pnggregory-f13 img_lottery-draw2.png0.062
08/20/2529209 img_lottery-draw2.pngbralf27 img_lottery-draw2.png0.129
8/21/2528256 img_lottery-draw2.pngbeanerman60 img_lottery-draw2.png0.234
8/22/2527341 img_lottery-draw2.pngdratek77 img_lottery-draw2.png0.226
8/23/2526374 img_lottery-draw2.pngkyl32 img_lottery-draw2.png0.005
8/24/2525154 img_lottery-draw2.pngsci-populi10 img_lottery-draw2.png0.065
8/25/2524194 img_lottery-draw2.pngarniboi28 img_lottery-draw2.png0.144
8/26/2523182 img_lottery-draw2.pngscfather2 img_lottery-draw2.png0.011
8/27/2522281 img_lottery-draw2.pngdratek20 img_lottery-draw2.png0.071
8/28/2521280 img_lottery-draw2.pngkillerkev10 img_lottery-draw2.png0.050
Total2,401 img_lottery-draw2.png249 img_lottery-draw2.png

In total, there are 2,401 Fortune Tickets that were used in this batch, lower than the 3,403 entries used for mint 31-40. In terms of Vouchers, that was only 24,010 burned. For the record, we are minting about 40k vouchers a day, so we haven't even burned a day's worth of Vouchers within this batch. In the event's defense, it was not really the main catalyst to burn Vouchers.

To break it down more, I have made different graphs to illustrate each data.


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Total Fortune Tickets Used For Each Card Mint.

The lowest number of Fortune Tickets entered was in mint #25 with only 157 Tickets, followed by mint #23 and #24, while the highest number of Fortune Tickets used was in mint #26, which uses 374 tickets, followed by mint #25 and #22.


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Arcane Card Winners and Fortune Tickets They Used.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the winners with the least number of tickets entered, both scfather and kyl3 tie in the first spot, entering only 2 tickets, followed by killerkev with 10 tickets and gregory-f with 13. On the other hand, the winners who spent the most tickets to get the Arcane Pickle were dratek with 77 tickets, followed by beanerman with 60, and arniboi with 28. But, it seems that dratek is not satisfied with only one copy and grabs another one for 20 tickets.


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Total Tickets Entered Vs. Winner Tickets Entered.

Comparing the total tickets entered to the tickets that the winners have entered, we can see how slim the chance each of them has to win a Gold Foil Arcane Pickle, especially when there are some players who spent more tickets but did not win. beanerman with the highest odds only has 0.234 chance, while kyl3 with only 0.005 chance looks more like a miracle that he was able to win the card out of the 374 entries he was against.

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Arcane Pickle Distribution

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Winners of GF Arcane Pickle Mint #21-#50

Out of the 30 GF Arcane Pickles that were distributed, there are a total of 24 unique users who won the card. Some players won multiple copies, with ikee leading for having 3 Arcane Pickle. I think it will be interesting to see who will get the most amount of pickles at the end of the event.

Vouchers Burned Vrs. Vouchers Minted (90 Days)

Vouchers Printed (90 Days)40,000 * 903,600,000
Pickle Event Mint #50-415,539 * 1055,390
Pickle Event Mint #40-313,403 * 1034,030
Pickle Event Mint #30-212,401 * 1024,010
Tasoshi Drakmoto General Sale1,612,250
Tasoshi Drakamoto Arcane Event1,350 * 10 * 10135,000
Total Tickets Used24,843 img_lottery-draw2.png
Total Vouchers Burned1,860,680
Vouchers Need To Burn To Be Voucher Deflationary-1,739,320

90 days is the duration for which the Voucher Card will be available for purchase, and in that time, we will be minting 3.6M vouchers. Combining the Vouchers that were burned through all the card events so far, we only burned 1,860,680 Vouchers. That is only half of what we need to be Voucher deflationary. The general sale for Tasoshi Drakamoto will last until mid-September, but I doubt we will see much movement on that. We still have the Fortune Draws for Arcane Pickle mint #1-20, as well as the BF Arcane Auction for Yaba's Pickle and Tasoshi Drakamoto, which may eat some of the Vouchers, but may not be enough to kill inflation.

Meanwhile, out of the 27,599 Fortune Tickets that have been issued as of the writing of this post, the arcane events have already soaked up 28,843 tickets, meaning there are only 2,756 Tickets in circulation. Unless more Fortune Tickets are crafted, that will be the maximum number of entries that we will see for the remaining cards.

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Closing

And that's the status within the mint #21-#30 of the Gold Foil Arcane Yaba's Pickle. If the number of Fortune tickets crafted does not increase, then we can expect that the number of entries entered will become lower and lower as we go to the end of the event, which will be quite disappointing as it barely helps in reducing Voucher inflation. But on a positive note, fewer entries will be entered, and you may have a bigger chance of getting the card if you start participating today.

That was all for this post. Thank you, and see you at the next one!


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Great post, it’s going to be interesting to see how many vouchers the auctions burn through and I can only imagine we will see an uptick in the low number pickle draws but it’s going to be close run on being voucher deflationary

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We'll see. There were really not that many Fortune Tickets in circulation right now.

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