When Will Chaos Legion Packs Sell Out?

Today is 10 Oct 2022 and at the time of writing, we are currently at 10,082,896 Chaos Legion packs distributed/sold, leaving 4,917,104 Chaos Legion packs to go.

The million dollar question is when will the 15 million Chaos Legion packs sell out? Before you continue reading this post, maybe you want to make a guess? Hehe.

Hint: It's not as early as you think!

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So one month ago in September, I came across announcements on Discord saying that the packs are expected "to sell out by year end". Being someone who likes to analyse statistics and numbers, I observed the speed at how the CL packs were moving over a few hours and days, and I was shocked at the projection because the speed was nowhere near completing the 5 million CL packs within the remaining 3 to 4 months.

So I actually had a discussion about this with some of my friends that play Splinterlands as well. I put forth the idea that CL packs might take till Q4 2023 to sell out (based on my rough estimations at that point in time) and the discussion got quite heated because everyone thought I was crazy. They didn't believe CL packs would take so long to finish, and came out with reasons that my sample size of observation was small, etc. To sum up, even the most pessimistic view within the discussion group was that CL packs will sell out by Q2 2023.

Oh well, so I went to track the numbers over the past 20 days and I am going to try to project when CL packs will sell out.

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Method #1: Referencing the previous speed of the Legendary Airdrops

Legendary Airdrop	Counter	Date Reached	Days Taken	Packs Per Day
Spirit Hoarder	7 million	29 Jan 2022	N.A.	-
Carnage Titan	8 million	22 Mar 2022	52	19,231
Grandmaster Rathe	9 million	10 Jul 2022	110	9,091
Conqueror Jacek	10 million	24 Sep 2022	76	13,158
Total			238	12,605

For reference, I could only take the data points from Spirit Hoarder onwards because the previous Legendary Airdrops were triggered in bulk due to the general sale.

• Carnage Titan took only 52 days to clock the 8th million. If we were to assume this speed i.e. 19,231 CL packs per day, the remaining 4.9 million CL packs would take approximately 256 days more to sell out, and that will take us to 22 Jun 2023. But I personally wouldn't take this data point because there was a major change in the Ranked Rewards during May/Jun 2022 and I think this might have affected the rate of CL pack drops in the reward chests.
• Grandmaster Rathe took a lengthy 110 days to clock the 9th million. Again, if we were to assume this speed i.e. 9,091 CL packs per day, the remaining 4.9 million CL packs would take approximately 541 days more to sell out, and that will take us to 2 Apr 2024!!!
• Finally, Conqueror Jacek took 76 days to clock the 10th million. Again, if we were to assume this speed i.e. 13,158 CL packs per day, the remaining 4.9 million CL packs would take approximately 374 days more to sell out, and that will take us to 18 Oct 2023!!!

How about we then take the average, where a total of 238 days were required to clock 3 million packs, i.e. 12,605 CL packs per day? The remaining 4.9 million CL packs would take approximately 390 days more to sell out, and that will take us to 4 Nov 2023.

Using this approach, it seems that an optimistic timeline is Jun 2023 and a pessimistic timeline is Apr 2024, and the "average" is somewhere around Oct or Nov 2023.

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Method #2: Looking at recent speeds

Date	Counter	Packs Distributed/Sold
Sep 21	9,980,687	N.A.
Sep 22	9,986,338	5,651
Sep 23	10,000,371	14,033
Sep 24	10,005,639	5,268
Sep 25	10,009,264	3,625
Sep 26	10,012,271	3,007
Sep 27	10,015,300	3,029
Sep 28	10,018,042	2,742
Sep 29	10,021,913	3,872
Sep 30	10,027,685	5,771
Oct 1	10,040,457	12,773
Oct 2	10,045,741	5,284
Oct 3	10,048,040	2,299
Oct 4	10,050,463	2,423
Oct 5	10,053,726	3,263
Oct 6	10,058,763	5,037
Oct 7	10,065,190	6,427
Oct 8	10,069,018	3,828
Oct 9	10,075,171	6,153
Oct 10	10,082,896	7,725

As mentioned, I decided to track the data for the past 20 days at almost the same time everyday. If you prefer a chart, here's one for easy visualisation.

I have used different colours to single out the spikes due to certain events.

• Blue bars: These are the usual day-to-day numbers and they range from 2,299 to 6,427 and the average is 4,102 CL packs per day.
• Green bars: The first green bar on 23 Sep was one day before the counter hit 10 million and there was probably some FOMO-ing involved to get the packs last minute. This will probably happen 5 more times before the end of each million so I don't count on it being significant for the course of the remaining 4.9 million packs. The second green bar on 1 Oct spiked likely due to the EOS chest rewards where more packs were distributed as rewards. It came in at 12,773 CL packs, which is about 8,671 above the average of the blue bars.

Scenario 1: If we were to assume 4,102 CL packs per day, with EOS (twice a month) being 12,773 CL packs per day, this works out to approximately 140,372 CL packs per month or 4,679 CL packs per day. At this rate, unfortunately, the remaining 4.9 million CL packs would take approximately 1,051 days more to sell out, and that will take us to 25 Aug 2025!

Scenario 2: Even if we were to miraculously double the speed of distribution/sales to 9,358 CL packs per day, the remaining 4.9 million CL packs would still take approximately 525 days more to sell out, and that will still take us to 18 Mar 2024!

Are you shocked? Haha.

• Cyan bars: With such snail speeds, it's not surprising that the team had to do something about it and here we have a Splinterfest Celebration Bulk Sales Promo which runs for 5 days. As you can see, the cyan bars on 9 and 10 Oct were approximately 2,000 to 3,000 higher than the blue bars, likely due to this promo. Given that this is not a permanent feature, I don't think it needs to be factored into the calculation.

Using this approach, it seems that the CL packs would only sell out as late as Aug 2025, or possibly in 2024 with the help of some promos on and off!

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Before I end, I think I should state the assumptions in my calculations as well.

Firstly, I assume that things will stay status quo but I don't think it will likely be the case. Like I shared above, with such slow speeds, I won't be surprised if the Splinterlands team will launch more promos such as the one above for Splinterfest to boost the sales so that it would not take forever to sell out these CL packs. If that is the case, obviously the CL packs will sell out earlier than my projections.

Secondly, I know there will be a FOMO factor towards the end but I did not include this because this is hard to predict, e.g. how much % increase to factor in. Hence I have chosen to provide various different timelines instead of a specific date in my calculations.

Finally, I also want to the state that the above calculations are done to the best of my ability. If there are any errors and mistakes, please feel free to let me know in the comments below and I will correct them.

Of course, if you are willing to make a guess when the CL packs will sell out, you can post in the comments below too!

That's all I have! As always, thanks for reading and have a pleasant day ahead!

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