Pricing Midnight Potions: A Landowner’s Strategic View on the Conclave Arcana Launch
Having shifted all my magical plots from Research to Aura, I’m now positioned to produce a significant number of Midnight Potions in the lead-up to the launch. But while holding some for personal pack openings is a no-brainer, the real question lies in how to approach pricing for the excess.
The Demand Side: A Strong Precedent
History in Splinterlands has shown that most players won’t open packs without attaching potions—because the increased odds of getting Gold Foils, Legendaries, or now Black Foils are simply too valuable to ignore. The added layer of rarity in this new set will likely intensify this behavior.
That means demand for Midnight Potions will almost certainly be strong. The unknown lies in how strong, and at what price point buyers and sellers will find balance.
A Floor Price: Alchemy Potion Benchmark
If we look for historical context, the most relevant pricing benchmark is the Alchemy Potion, used to boost Gold Foil chances. These have typically maintained a floor price around $0.05. Since Midnight Potions are similarly tied to foil rarity (but this time for a new and even rarer foil type), that $0.05 level seems like a logical starting floor for pricing.
Of course, we don't yet have concrete data on how valuable Black Foils will be in terms of in-game power or collector value, but early buzz suggests they will carry significant weight. That potential pushes the case for Midnight Potions to command a premium above the traditional potion floor.
The Cost Side: Landowner’s Advantage
Here’s where things get interesting.
Since I’ve already made long-term investments in magical plots, staked DEC, and infrastructure, I’m looking strictly at the marginal cost of producing Midnight Potions—ignoring sunk costs like the land and cards. Under this lens, my cost to produce each potion comes out to just under $0.02.
That leaves a healthy profit margin even at the $0.05 floor—and significant upside if the market pushes potions higher.
Of course, not every player will have the same production costs. Variations in land setup, workforce cards, time crystal usage, and efficiency levels mean this isn’t a one-size-fits-all situation. But for me, this structure puts me in a strong position to supply the market and capitalize on the growing merchant dynamics emerging around land.
The Big Unknown: Secondary Market Behavior
The real wildcard is how the broader player base will perceive the value of Black Foils and how that translates into willingness to pay for Midnight Potions. If Black Foils prove as rare and powerful as anticipated, we could see the potion price push above traditional norms—especially if supply remains constrained in the early days of the pack launch.
But even if prices start low due to market saturation (as we’ve seen with other assets), the long-term value of Black Foils could still buoy potion prices over time.
After years of patience and quiet preparation, it’s rewarding to finally see the gears of land ownership spinning in ways that align with my merchant mindset. The upcoming Conclave Arcana launch isn’t just about new cards—it’s a catalyst for deeper economic engagement. Midnight Potions may be the first real test of just how far Splinterlands’ evolving economy has come.
For now, I’ll watch the data, fine-tune my potion production, and be ready to meet demand when it comes—profitably.
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Nice post! Your cost to produce a potion is significantly lower than mine—last I checked, it was around 0.027 for me. You probably have higher PP cards in those Aura Labs. 😄
One feature I still want to add to the tool is the ability to enter a name and instantly see the potion cost. 🙂
So many things to do... hahaha!
That would be great! Thanks for all the great work you are doing!