Will the cryptocurrency market experience another significant drop?

Recently, cryptocurrencies like EOS and XRP have successively reached new highs, and the market enthusiasm seems somewhat reminiscent of the frenzy before September 2017. However, reviewing on-chain data and regulatory dynamics reveals that the current market structure has fundamentally changed — the cryptocurrency market of 2025 stands at a crossroads of retail enthusiasm and institutional rationality. The significant decline in September 2017 was due to the sudden tightening of regulatory policies, whereas the global attitude towards.

cryptocurrencies has now shifted from a 'one-size-fits-all' approach to 'refined regulation'. The US specifies that stablecoins must be pegged 1:1 to dollar assets, and the EU MiCA Act requires all crypto service providers to disclose their reserve situations, establishing such 'clear rules' reduces market fears of black box operations. However, it should be noted that the current Bitcoin MVRV ratio has reached 2.6, exceeding the peak of 2.4 during the 2021 bull market, indicating that some cryptocurrencies may be overvalued.

Behind those cryptocurrencies that have reached historic highs lies a distinct differentiation: XRP's cross-border payment cooperation has led to an increase in institutional holdings to 18%; while the rise of MEME coins like SHIB and PEPE still relies on retail FOMO sentiment, with 90% of their holding addresses being small accounts with balances under $100. This structural difference reminds us: despite also being new highs, the supporting logic may be vastly different.

Friends who have been in the industry for many years often say that the era of 'blindly buying altcoins' for profit in 2021 is long gone.
A real case around me is: an investor in 2021 achieved asset doubling by allocating mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, combined with Layer2 ecological tokens, during the 2024 halving cycle, ultimately using profits to purchase property — this was not luck, but rather following a strategy of 'mainstream coins as a foundation + diversified allocation in innovative sectors'.

Current market profit opportunities are shifting towards specialization. Data from Bank of America shows that in 2025, institutional investors prefer projects with 'clear technological implementation': Ethereum Layer2 daily active users have surpassed 5 million, with a median annual increase of 80% for its ecological tokens; meanwhile, cryptocurrencies lacking application scenarios, even if they surge in the short term, often retract all gains within three months. This means that investment research is no longer a 'coin selection skill', but a necessity for survival.

The volatility of cryptocurrencies is still 5-8 times that of stocks; even Bitcoin experiences a daily fluctuation of 10% as a norm. Investing household reserves and mortgage funds into the market essentially gambles short-term price differences with life security, often leading to losses due to emotional outbursts.

A data platform's statistics show that among new altcoins launched in 2025, 65% drop below their issuance price within three months, and 80% lack actual development progress. Before participating in such coins, one should at least understand three questions: What demand does the project address? Is the team transparent? Is there continuous institutional capital injection?

Currently, global compliant exchanges must meet at least two conditions: a US MSB license or EU MiCA certification, and real-time asset reserve proof. Platforms that promise 'high leverage' or 'zero fees' but lack regulatory information are essentially no different from the 'pump and dump' schemes of 2019. Remember, true safety is not based on a platform's reputation but relies on a regulatory framework.

Some say 'blockchain is an opportunity for ordinary people to rise', which is true, but the premise is to understand: the underlying technology of Bitcoin is being used for cross-border trade settlement, and Ethereum smart contracts are being implemented in supply chain finance — these are the foundations of the industry. Those who advocate for 'staying away from the real economy' are either ignorant or have ulterior motives.

Returning to the initial question: Will there be a significant drop in September 2025? No one can predict accurately. However, it is certain that speculation driven by emotions will eventually exit, while investors who understand regulatory logic, technological progress, and capital flow will be better positioned to stand firm amidst volatility. After all, the long-term winners in the cryptocurrency market have never been gamblers, but those treating it as a battleground for monetizing cognition.