RE: An end to Splinterlands or a breather from the frenzied cash grab?
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I wish I was as optimistic as you are but I don't see a rebound by April. If I was to pull out my crystal ball (which is faulty most of the time). I'd see things like this: Continued fall for the next month as people pull their SPS out because of the stop in the double voucher drop. Then there will be a drop in card prices as Chaos packs go into general sale. Expect a few million to go quickly and then things will get really slow for a while. SPS continues to drop as it keeps getting printed with small demand.
Then land comes out making a use case for SPS and the SPS has a sharp rise followed by a gradual decline.
Then in the long term there is a gradual increase in player base as the cards are cheap and entry is easy. The gameplay and ability to make real money get more people into the game. As the story gets fleshed out, Player vs environment is introduced. Land gets firmly entrenched for even better gameplay. Guilds take over the land to make for region wars. Events get better known for more competitive play... then things start to take off again.
Once the Chaos packs are sold out, SPS is no longer airdropped and people start seeing new players and increased value in the game...
.... then things take off and we will be glad that we didn't bail at this tough time :)
Just my two cents worth
Could be a little longer than April I suppose. But I think the price of stuff is dictated more by market trends than game features. I think most of the heavy investors in the game treat it like any other crypto, pumping and dumping based on trends. Game features can kind of influence things but not nearly as much as heavy investors.
Case in point would be SPS and the pre-sale. It reached over $1 right at the start and if it was more reliant on in-game use it would have kept going up since its first real use had finally arrived. Instead it has steadily fallen since. And that is most likely because investors started dumping it since it was so high and the market as a whole was headed downward, they didn't really care about vouchers and chaos packs. They weren't staking. They were just holding millions of SPS, that gained them a 50-100% profit in a couple months and the time had come to dump it.
So most of my optimism is because I think the market as a whole rebounds sometime in the next few months. Splinterlands follows. Investors will probably just see SPS and DEC as an opportunity to pump again, regardless of what they do in game. So when you see heavy orders start showing up, that will be an indicator where the market is going.
Of course, the market is somewhat unpredictable. At least to those of us that don't have the millions needed to pump and dump on their own.