Deeper Look at Djinn Oshannus - The Fallen King

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Finally after 3 months of playing @splinterlands, I managed to get another Djinn Oshannus from Season's Rewards. I was on Silver 1 League at the end of Season 68, and I got Djinn Oshanuss from 18 Loot Chests given as seen below:

season rewards 68.gif

This will be a long post, I have made a resume above the credit section in the last part of this post. You can check it directly if you don't have time to read through this whole post.

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A QUICK REVIEW OF DJINN OSHANNUS

Dawn of the Djinn 3 of 4 - The Djinn are angry at the way they were tricked by the Planet, but also appreciative that they can now enjoy this limited freedom, each trapped by natural forces. The Djinn possess powerful ancient magic of their own, which is now charged into the force of one element for each of them. The ancient demons of war are an awkward bunch to be chosen as a planetary defensive force, but they are also impressively capable of the job. As long as they are bound by the Planet, they will do its bidding. Whatever their would-be choices and allegiances, they will fight against the Chaos Legion to protect the sixth mana gate.

oshannus stats.jpg

Stats-wise, we can see Djinn Oshannus is actually a tank. He has high health point with 5 speed plus a Void Ability (reduced damage from magic attack), He can dodge some slow opponents' attacks and magic attacks won't hurt him much. On higher levels, he will get Phase Ability and Forcefield Ability, both are defensive abilities which strengthen Oshannus's role as a tank.

I like this card a lot, having Oshannus available definitely gives you some alternative to build up your team. However there are some weakness he has, and the most notable one is his attack power. 2-3 Magic damage is actually not a bad one, but for a 8 mana Legendary Monsters, it's something that we would not like to see...

Djinn Oshannus Was Sublime In The Past

In the past Djinn Oshannus was a nightmare to his opponents, because whoever the summoners we picked, they could work well with Oshannus. If we picked Alric Stormbringer, Alric would boost up Oshannus attack to 3 magic damage, that would make Djinn Oshannus lethal to most small mana monsters. If we chose Bortus, he would lower opponents magic damage and this would make most of magician unable to hurt Oshannus.

These three combination of Alric-Oshannus-Wavesmith below, before Chaos Legion released, was one of most favorite and often found in Bronze-Silver League battles. They were strong and ease to build. This was one of the major reason why Oshannus and Wavesmith price were very high during that time. Nowadays you can try to experiment this formation starting by getting Alric Stormbringer first. Then you will understand how good their combination is.

This formation is super strong in Bronze League and early Silver League. However you can not expect much from them in higher league. When you meet an anti magic formation, we can say 80-95% you would lose that battle. Even without anti magic formation, in high mana cap battle, there are high mana monsters that can break this formation easily such as Chaos Dragon and Sand Worm.

Djinn Oshannus In Current Days

Lets get back to reality, Oshannus isn't everyone favorite anymore. It's price keeps slumping everyday. We will talk about price later, but now we will find out what happens with Oshannus.

Chaos Legion water summoner, Kelya Frendul actually works well with Oshannus, based on this many people predict that maybe later Oshannus price will get a rebound. Kelya increases Oshannus speed and gives him an extra armor. In my opinion, there are two major causes why people prefer other monsters over Oshannus.

1. Chaos Legion Offers Different Set of Strategy

The old school Water Element was all about Magic or Anti Magic. Djinn Oshannus or Torhillo The Frozen. Chaos Legion has offered other strategies beside those two, one of them which is famous now is a fast destructive melee based team. We can see Deep Lurker high melee damage, Diemon Shark with Trample ability, and Hellondale who has Inspire ability. Starting on Silver league we can have 2 inspire from Hellondale and Demented Shark.

This change is good in general, we won't get bored easily due to only 2 main strategies in Water element deck, however Oshannus and Wavesmith suffer a lot from it. People love new strategy better than the older one, which it means people are leaving Oshannus and Wavesmith from their main choice and both are treated as a stand-in incase the battle has a ruleset which makes their main choice unavailable such as KEEP YOUR DISTANCE (Monsters with Melee attack may not be used in battles).

2. Heavy Competition, Many New Competitors and Substitutes

From older selection, there are several tanks that are great maybe on par with Djinn Oshannus. We have two all time famous Sea Monsters and Torhillo, and from neutral we have Lord Arianthus, Chain Golem and some more. Chaos Legion comes with more good tanks, however I think these 3 monsters below are the strongest competitor to Oshannus.

Nerissa is a very powerful magician. If you need a mage who deals damage, you can replace Oshannus with Nerrisa, because in term of damage she is definitely better. Her health is high too, so she won't get killed easily.

Wave Brood is a great alternative for a tank, because it has a Taunt ability. You can put it behind and it will divide opponent attacks. The same as Oshannus, Wave Brood has Void ability, so magic won't kill him easily. Having Wave Brood will open new possibility of generating new strategy and formation.

The last one is Baakjira. Baakjira is a great tank against opponent magic attack. This fish doesn't have any attack but It is an excellent Buffer. When Baakjira was released, Oshannus price dropped from $8 to $5, and when this post was made, Oshannus was already sold at $4.

In general I am not saying Oshannus is weaker than them, but in a certain condition those 3 are way better performers than Oshannus.

INVESTING IN DJINN OSHANNUS

Now is the fun part, we are talking about investing in Djinn Oshannus. First I will have to remind you all, this post is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE , I am giving you all my opion about Investing in Djinn Oshannus, but anything still might happen and I might be wrong in some sort of things.

Djinn Oshannus Price ©splintercards

Based on the graph above about Djinn Oshannus price, we can see clearly that as time goes by, its price keeps slumping. If we want to predict about price, there are 2 basic variable that we will have to see first, they are SUPPLY and DEMAND

Demand of Djinn Oshannus

The Demand of Djinn Oshannus comes from two factor, first is about how good is Djinn Oshannus. This will urge many players to own or rent Oshannus. Based on what I have said about Oshannus in current days above, I don't think the needs of Oshannus is high nor getting higher right now.

You can say that later maybe... some monsters of new summoners from Rewards or upcoming Rift Watchers pack might push Djinn Oshannus demand higher because of various things you can come up with. In my opinion that's an absurd. I have seen a couple of youtube videos saying that what if... what if... then Baakjira released and Djinn Oshannus price got fallen deeper.

We can wish Oshannus gets a better supporting Monster or Summoner however we need to be as objective as possible towards possibility that other monsters might become better due to the upcoming new monsters and summoners.

number of users ©peakmonsters

The second factor about demand is the number of users. This is a quantitative point of view. From peakmonster data, we can see the bar chart above that users base has been stagnant for the last 30 days. There isn't any issue that indicates the users will spike up in the future or fall down too.

Based on these 2 factors, It is safe to say that the demand of Djinn Oshannus won't be higher for 3 months ahead until Rift Watchers pack is released. Maybe forever the demand will be the same.

Supply of Djinn Oshannus

Printing and Distribution of Water Element Reward Cards ©splintercards

Based on splintercards data above, we can see that today, 11 March 2022, there are 40.600 Oshannus cards out there and those cards are only 29,6% from all cards (or BCX) that will be printed. So we can expect to see around 137.000 cards will be in circulation later after all get printed out.

Market Condition - Over Supply of Djinn Oshannus

The Supply is increasing, the demand is stagnant... As time goes by, we can expect Oshannus's price will drop. How low will it drop? I don't know, because DEC value or price changes time to time. However I think none is crazy enough to sell any card below it's burnt value.

One thing that we can take a note here, that there will be a massive oversupply of Djinn Oshannus. Currently our user based is on steady state, some new players get in and old players retired, stagnant at 400.000 users. Based on Pareto Rule 20:80 (only 20% part which made 80% result), we can say only 20% of users are really active, or about 20% x 400.0000 users = 80.000 users. We will have 137.000 Djinn Oshannus cards, that means we will have 57.000 oversupplied cards.

Now with this condition, I don't have to tell more story, you guys can make your own assumption and take decision later... Will you want to invest on something that definitely going to be oversupplied?

Please bear in mind that I am not againts buying Djinn Oshannus. If you want to buy it to make your Water Element deck stronger, please do that without any hesitation. Oshannus is not a weak monsters, he is a good one. However Investing is acquiring something that generates income and appreciation, without Price Appreciation... I don't think it can be called Investment.

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Resume

here is what I have been talking about, summarized into these points:

  1. Djinn Oshannus is a good tank
  2. In the past It was considered one of the core or most important Water Element Monsters
  3. After Chaos Legion pack released, Oshannus can be said fail to compete with new monsters.
  4. I am predicting Oshannus price will keep decreasing due to oversupply
  5. Although the price will get lower and lower later, it doesn't mean you must not buy it.

water divider - flauwy.png

CREDIT

Initially I attached some video and tagged some people in this post. After I made the last review before publishing this post, I changed my mind and took them out from this post. Somehow I felt like rubbing salts into their wound. Many people have lost money due to massive buying on Djinn Oshannus and Venari Wavesmith in past.

splinterlands : for everything here from the game and images
splintercards : for distribution and price data of Oshannus
peakmonster : for number of users information
flauwy : for wonderful divider art



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5 comments
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Amazing analysis and review. Will look for more great content like this in the future. I agree with you that its price will be kept in check because of the supply. The one piece/ability, which I think is being slept on, is Forcefield. I think we could see Oshannus rise with more players coming and those players rising to Gold/Diamond leagues. Sharing this on Splinterlands Digest Twitter.

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Great post with nice insights!
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