Flipadelphia Day 30: A Few Sales and Sitting on DEC

After a few sales, it's hard to figure out what to do next.

None of this article is financial/investment/legal advice, it contains a strategic valuation analysis of speculative assets that can be subject to market fluctuations. You are suggested to seek out a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) for all investments and the author is not an RIA. Splinterlands' Terms of Service identifies Splinterlands/Steem Monsters as not being an Investment Company. As defined by the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, Steem Monsters (the parent company of Splinterlands) and the Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) that was published by Steem Monsters can be argued to rise to the definition of being classified as Financial Institutions in the United States. This is a duty to warn and inform given that the actions to be described regard the valuation of assets and speculation of events to take place.

Prices are rising and sales are being made, but purchases are not. At this point, sitting on DEC until an opportunity arises appears to be the move. There are different avenues to take on this 30th day in Flipadelphia and this is the thought process when approaching the next steps.

What's Out?

A pair of Gold Foil cards that were recently purchased were successfully sold. The Level 3 Gold Foil Portal Spinner is a relatively quick flip that resulted in a 32.5% profit. The Level 3 Gold Foil Blinding Reflector was not as quick of a flip (it took 2 weeks), but it sold for a 25.1% profit.

The Level 1 Regular Foil Igor Darkspear was finally sold off for $1.886 and this added to the DEC holdings.

Waiting to Swipe Right

Not much is left up for sale at this moment because some cards are being rented out as they are not close to being sold or offer greater value in the rental market.

For Rent

All five of these cards can clear high amounts of DEC per day during the second half of the season. At this present time, overly generous and misguided cardlords along with lazy cardlords are suppressing prices to the gain of bot farms that will eventually stop renting cards as they will eventually be self-sustaining. Only the Level 2 Gold Foil Regal Peryton is generating rental revenue at this present time.

Looking Forward

There are a few decisions to be made, but first let's take a look at where we stand right now with the collection as a whole.

At this present time, at the value of DEC being .0007508, there is $11 worth of DEC in the Splinterlands account. This is free capital that has the potential to do anything. The collection value has been bolstered by the increased valuation of Rewards cards. In fact, all of the Gold Foil Rare Rewards cards are over $1 per card.

All of the Gold Foil Common Rewards cards are now over $.30 per card.

Given the demand for Gold Foil Common and Rare Rewards cards, this may not be the best time to sell them and so they will stay on the sidelines for now.

With this $11 in DEC that will probably appreciate tomorrow afternoon like clockwork, there are three routes to take.

All-In on One Card

This path would mean that a card is purchased at a price point above $10 and the hope is that a 25-50% gain would result in $2.50-$5 of profit. It is an approach that would put a lot of growth hopes on one higher price card.

The risks are obvious and the fear that the card could end up being stuck on the market like the Level 2 Gold Foil Water Caller is certainly there. To make this decision, the pricing, meta playability, and selling environment must make sense.

Above is the price chart for the Level 2 Gold Foil Tarsa, it is $10.98. However, the price action does not support the idea of purchasing this card. It is a card that is ranging and getting it to break above $13 is going to be tough as that is a resistance point. Tarsa is not the most popular summoner to use, but bot farms enjoy using it from the rental market.

The returns are not very good, in fact, it would be better to simply put the money into HBD savings at 20% or stake it in SPS (22.8%) than to buy and rent out this card.

With a slight appreciation in DEC, Level 2 Gold Foil Thaddius Brood becomes a possibility. Checking in at $11.205, this is another Chaos Legion summoner that is popular in Modern format.

It's a card with more potential, but the downside is that there are leveled up summoners that must be cleared or ignored to get to higher priced 1 BCX versions.

3-4 cards Between $2.50-$4 with Upside

This diversifies the possibilities and prevents the scenario that every card ends up like our poor Gold Foil Water Caller. The profit margins can certainly be attained this way although it requires more events to take place to get to the same profit amount as one card being sold.

It's possible that some of the cards are rented for exorbitant amounts.

7-8 cards Between $1-$2 with Upside

This goes even further down the diversification lane and it does provide opportunities to profit, but it could take more time. The amount of cards in this price range in the Gold Foil market is shrinking, but there may be Regular Foil cards that make sense.