New Year, New Charts - Who dis?!? $BTC, $HIVE + $SPS Charts for some Hopium!

Good morning Splinterfriends & Hivers, InLeos & Ecencers... CryptoBros, Chads, Chuds and everyone in between!

Between... what a dope word... Seriously. That's some "Ye Olde English" right there!! What's next? Betwixt? Doth thee have thine ale, good sir? Verily I say, unhand me rapscallion or I shall report thee to thy authorities POSTHASTE!!

Yeah... anyways... It's 2025 and we have arrived on the doorstep of the Bull Market part of the Cycle...

You know, the fun part, where you can throw a dart at a wall filled with Coin Names and 2x, 3x, 10x your money relatively easily... where EVERYONE is a Genius lol

Today, I have picked a few charts and while I won't put much TA into it... I'll glance at and mark the basic levels I believe to be important.

Remember kiddos, this is just my personal observations - NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE... and if Squid Games Season 2... or SquidGames Coin taught us anything... this shit can go sideways faster than a scalded cat that's seen it's shadow... or something.

Don't risk everything. It's volatile... Shitcoins can go to zero. Rug pulls are a bitch. Invest only what you could afford to lose... all that.

With that being said, I shall continue with my journal and charts!

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First Chart - Bitcoin:USD

Here's good ol' Bitcoin... which could have made us all really rich... had we known about it in 2009 with the ability to see the future...

In reality many of us probably have stories where our lives would be very different if "we just did [XYZ]!"...

I have way, WAY too many... I don't know how I screwed up (and got screwed over) so much... Anyways - perseverance is key and all that... The strongest Steel is forged with the hottest fires and yadda yadda...

With that being said, let's learn from the past and not make those same mistakes in 2025!!

A quick glance at the BTC "All Time Chart" shows me on the Monthly Candle that Bitcoin is at a Level where it's facing resistance for a few reasons.

A. It's at/above the Top Bollinger Band
B. Topping out the RSI chart
C. Massive growth since the big ol' candle in November
D. Fed Rate Cuts in the US
E. Some growing FUD in the US

I think, this will have the effect we see in the previous Bull Markets:

Early Bull "Pullback" - there will be profit taking and this will cause a price dip... on top of that, the "Major Players" will use everything at their disposal (as they have been) to manipulate the market: FUD. Reports. Ban/Unban. Etc.

Later in the year, we will see a wild price drive that pushes the RSI into a top with the "Green Shading" like in the 2017/2021 Bull Runs.

As for the performance over the last year:

Bitcoin is up over 100% from the $41k mark it was at in Jan of 2024!

All in all, I think Bitcoin is a solid buy for now if to "play it safe" in the Crypto Markets and I will keep adding to my "Investments".

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Second Chart - HIVE:USD

This is the HIVE "All Time Chart" which shows how relatively new HIVE is.

I missed this and I can't believe I missed this... I had taken a break from charting to simply DCA into projects and so I missed a fundamental Price Target for entering a "Trade" with HIVE...

Take a look at the Green Line I drew at the $.17 level...

Looking back at the beginning we see a few Red boxes where candles stopped at the line and either reversed direction or "held"... for a brief bit, it dipped below and then went back over only briefly touching the line one more time before YEETING it into the stratosphere.

WE WERE HOVERNIG NEAR THAT LINE FOR WEEKS - that is called "Accumulation Phase"... where the RSI was increasing... but the price wasn't...

People were selling... but there was so much buying power at that level... the OLD SUPPORT level... it couldn't drop lower...

If... for any reason... $HIVE touches $.20 or below one more time... I will take that as a HUGE trade opportunity!

If you want to see a shockingly similar chart... take a look at this:

Yup... That's Bitcoin's "Daily" Chart for the end of 2017 to the "Despair" phase in 2019...

The peaks are similar, the lower bounces are similar, the "Trough" is similar, the RSI pattern in the "Trough" is similar as it was accumulated...

Wanna see what happened next?

4 Years from Peak to Peak and we saw a 245% increase... PEAK TO PEAK... Like if you were a "DUMBASS" who bought the VERY TOP in the 2017 Bull... You'd be up 250% if you held until the next top!!

But what about Trough to Peak? What if we scooped up Bitcoin at the $3,000 Level in 2018/19 (LIKE I TOLD EVERYONE TO DO)... How much would we be up then??

Oh... 2,135%... or 21.35X... 🤑

Or one could have exited 2 years later in Jan of 2021 for a 10x with time to catch the rest of the Bull... OR!!! See this is where we get the "MAN!! IF I HAD JUST DONE [XYZ] INSTEAD!!"

So... based off of that... should $HIVE retrace back to the $.17 level... that'd be a gift from God... However, I will be eyeballing the $.20-$.25 levels as a "Good entry"... for a Trade :)

What kind of prediction do I have for $HIVE? Well... it's growing and being added to more exchanges... It's already on Binance... which is wild...

Looking at the snapshot from Coin Market Cap, HIVE currently has a price of $.485 and a Market Cap of only $245 Million... which means... as a Blockchain, it has TONS of room for growth... I MEAN TONS!!

The WHOLE BLOCKCHAIN TOKEN, as a whole... is only $245 Million at this price... it was only around $85 Million at the $.17 level 😱

With that being said... let's extrapolate with HIVE as we did with Bitcoin... What does a 250% "Peak to Peak" growth pattern over four years look like?

Yup... it looks BORING AS FUCK... Let me tell you why I and probably many others have the "oh man I wish I did [XYZ] differently" in many cases...

During a teeny tiny few short months of the Bull Market... SHIT EXPLODES UPWARDS and people are bragging about how much money they are making!!!

Euphoria Sets In

This feels AMAZING... it's like a drug!! The high is UNBELIEVABLE and you feel like you're the SMARTEST MOST BESTEST HUMAN BEING TO HAVE EVER LIVED... MOVE OVER EINSTEIN, I AM HERE 😎

Well... let me tell you from experience... 10+ YEARS of it now... 2013 was cool (I came in at the end)...

2014 SUCKED. 2015 SUCKED A LOT. 2016 was pretty cool... 2017 I AM A GENIUS AND LORD AMONG MEN!!!!!

2018 SUCKED. 2019 SUCKED A LOT. 2020 was pretty cool... 2021 HAHA I AM BACK BITCHES!! GENIUS!!!

Do you see the pattern here? The shitty phase, after the correction is actually the BEST PHASE!!!

But because it is BORING... people are not paying attention... the media isn't paying attention... BECAUSE THE BIG PLAYERS ARE BUYING ALL THE SHIT YOU'RE DUMPING AT BARGAIN PRICES...

If you can ditch the Ego... ditch the emotion... recognize that the 2 year span in the middle of the Peaks IS WHERE THE MONEY IS MADE... that is when you can make some $$$$... but only if you believe the [Insert Investment] is worth it and will survive the next 2+ years.

So... at this point... do I really think $HIVE could do insane numbers and hit $8.00+ in just 10 Months??? that's like 16x from right here!!

Well... one last look at Bitcoin circa 2017...

Oh... well... I suppose it could 😮

I have grown to become a HUGE fan of HIVE and the people who make up Hive... which is all of us!

With that being said my fellow Hivers... let's move on to my final Token Chart... Splintershards!!

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Third Chart - SPS:USD

Oh my sweet baby Jesus... what the actual fuck happened... well... lots of things happened... but being a "fringe sector" of an already risky market... with rapidly inflating supply... well... you know what happens to the price when you have "Supply Up/Demand Down"... #WompWomp

Now the great thing is... so many POSITIVE things have happened over the last Bear Market Cycle... that I believe we are primed for some incredible growth opportunity in 2025... this is the year we have all waited for...

Let's abandon this "All Time Chart" that looks like someone is coding and take a look at the $SPS Token over the last year!

With the exception of that insane "Dump" in December... since Jan 2024 we have... SHIT THE FUCKING BED... to be frank... -80% since Jan 24 and tanked from $.0385 to $.0079

Jesus Christ... as we have proceeded through the "Accumulation Year" into the key year of the "Bull Market Cycle"... we tanked EIGHTY Percent?

Well... Yes... and No... While those IN the Game have lost 80% of the value of their Splintershards Tokens (and assets probably)... If you were playing the game over the last year or so... you would have been EARNING a bunch of $SPS!

So... aggregate gain/loss here, PURELY HYPOTHETICAL... Let's say you YEET into Splinterlands in Jan 2024...

You buy $1,000 worth of Splintershards = 25,974 SPS @ $.0385
You buy $1,000 worth of Cards
You Stake your SPS and maybe even rent some for $1/week for extra Rewards

What do your possible Profits/Losses look like at this point?

1. $1,000 of SPS = $200... Gross...
2. $1,000 worth of Cards = $200 (taking the easy estimate)
3. $1/week SPS Rental = $52 in "Loss"

But let's see... over the past year, by staking your SPS you would have earned roughly 12.5% in Splintershards/Vouchers... but let's roll all that into $SPS and not get into the other stuff... too complicated.

25,974 SPS x 12.5% (for super easy calc) = 3,247 SPS Earned from staking... and at $.0079 current price... that's... $25.65 earned!!

Which means of the $1,000 invested last January in SPS you have... $225.65... or ONLY a 77.5% Loss!! Ha HAH!!!

Oh wait... still bad :(

Card wise it's still the same... but you earn SPS for winning Battles!! That's RIGHT!! Well... you were renting some SPS for Reward Increases and you've gotten some nice Reward Cards (which you can't sell... but that's another story)...

How much SPS could one earn realistically? Energy regenerates at 1e/hr so one can play 24 games per Day with no external forces... Again for super simple mathification...

24 Battles per day... x 365 Days... (+25)= 8,785 Battles... but you can buy extra Energy with Rewards sooooo let's add an extra 50 Battles every Season, which is two weeks... There are ~ 26 Seasons per year... so 26 * 50 = 1,300.

8,785 Battles + 1,300 Battles = 10,085 Battles in a year... without going crazy with the calcs...

Expecting a 50% WR that's 5,043 Wins and lets say with the cards and rentals we are earning an aggressive 4 SPS per Win... that is... 20,172 SPS!!

20,172 * .0079 = $159.35!! Holy crap that's almost your ENTIRE PURCHASED SPS!!

Now... if that goes back to the $.0385 Level (or higher)...

You paid $2,052 total and after one year you have...

25,974 Purchased SPS
3,247 SPS from Staking
20,172 SPS from Battles

Which equals...

49,393 SPS Total... and that's worth:

Current: $390 or -61% but that's not nearly as bad as -80% right... RIGHT?!?!
$.0385: $1,901 or +90% if it goes back TO YOUR ENTRY!!!

Not to mention card prices!!

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Closing thoughts...

I hate to see SPS down so much... It hurts... but I have a lot of hope for the future of this game and the Token... 2025 will be a key year and I am paying CLOSE ATTENTION to what happens over the next 12 months... I hope you do too!

With a Market Cap of only $13 Million... this can EXPLODE with very little money moving into the system...

We held... lets hope we can reap the rewards :)

VONAK!!!

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That's all I have for you today folks!! Thank you for reading and I would LOVE for you to join me in game!!

Naturally, after everything leading up to this moment, I do think Splinterlands and Soulkeep are some of the BEST web3 games out there!

They bring the #play2earn feature to the forefront of development as well as many opportunities for people to earn rewards - whether Player or Investor!!

If you're interested in the future of gaming, it's worth checking out!

You can sign up here: Splinterlands

Cheers 🍻,

• CaptainDingus

#Splinterlands #Hive #Soulkeep #play2earn #web3 #NFTGaming #Rebellion #Conflicts #TowerDefense