Modern Battle Data Analysis

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With 2 full seasons of Conclave Arcana gameplay in Modern, I wanted to evaluate my performance so far and look at what cards were the most successful for me. In this post, I use Xbot's battle analysis data, and I'm looking at Modern (where I play manually) over the last 30 days (5/18 to 6/17).

First off, you can see I played a whopping 1460 battles with a win rate of 56.4% (would love to get that up to 60%, but man the competition up in Champ is HARD).

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1460 battles over 30 days translates to ~48 battles/day, which takes me probably about 90 minutes per day. I tend to multi-task while I'm playing (e.g. I'm writing this post in between waiting for battles...) though that's probably affecting my win rate!! Overall though, I've had a ton of fun playing and can say the Rebellion+CA modern is, to me at least, more fun than the previous CL+Rebellion modern.

Ok let's dig into my top performers.


Summoners

The following screenshots show my top 14 used summoners, and I've put a few thoughts below the screenshots.

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Takeaways:

  • Lorkus is the new meta (along with Kelan). The usage between Lorkus and Eternal Tofu basically flipped and there are many reasons for that, including the introduction a hard counter to Tofu (Bella), the huge improvements to the fire team (with units like Graybrow), the removal of Forcefield (which gives more usage to Heloise/Drath lineups). This, along with improved support units to put alongside Kelan, has put Lorkus in the definite lead. My 54% win rate is impressive given I spam him, though it IS lower than some of the others in the list.
  • Can you believe I'm also using Cryptic AND Drath MORE than I'm using Eternal Tofu?? Even I was surprised to see that. And what's more, you can see my win rate with Drath (68%) is higher than the other "big 3". Tofu's second at 63%. The secret to Drath? Heloise of course.
  • Razi's up there at 70% win rate. Using her with the Lucky Longshot and Water Diviner is awesome (and extra fun).
  • EMP sits at a comfortable 54%. I love using him with either Slade or Sifu in the second position, but often get outplayed by similar but better EMP lineups or by Bella or Cryptic.
  • I was surprised to see Bella below 50%, but the truth is I haven't quite figured her out, and sometimes my Hippo play is "lazy" (I try to just bully a win).
  • Another notable here is Nidhoggr with a 49% win rate from 51 battles. That's more than I would've previously played him, and although he's tricky to use I think I'm using him more and more nowadays.
  • Kavorn's a bit of a bummer here at <40%. He just doesn't have enough Drakoshan to be useful at the moment, so he's basically a no-ability 3 mana Dragon summoner, which can occasionally be useful but for the most part there are better options.

Units

For the units, here are screenshots showing my top 21 most used cards:

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Takeaways:

  • Halfling Refugee is a beast of a card. 1 mana meat shield with great attack. An OP card from the reward set. Make sure to max him before rewards rotate.
  • Kelan, as I've said before, is the meta attack card in the game right now. My win rate with him is 54%, just like Lorkus, and that's not a coincidence. They pair perfectly together.
  • Graybrow's probably the best card in CA and he comes in 3rd in my play rank. He's SUPER versatile, and in particular don't count him out in low mana games, where he's an absolute unit. He also pairs great with Lorkus.
  • Elanor is the most versatile unit in the game as a 0 mana neutral who attacks from the back line and supports the team with Strengthen.
  • Ahh... the Skinwalker. @bjangles will say "I told you so". He's awesome. I didn't originally account for the fact that he's ALSO required against Kelan. But his Shapeshift is extraordinary, and the fact that he's an 8 mana rare vs Gramel's 11 mana legendary, makes him more versatile. Shapeshift means he'll keep getting better btw...
  • Venka continues to be a beast, and the fact that Forcefield's no longer an issue gave her an upgrade.
  • Vicious Giraffe is the best common in CA, and a perfect match for Graybrow (as well as the Wayfinder).
  • Moxian Rebel lost a bit of her Moxi, but is still elite.
  • Inept Healer's the second best Legendary, and look at that 59% win rate. Corrupted Healing is one of the best abilities in the game.
  • Ujurak Elder's another fantastically versatile Neutral card from the reward set that you MUST max out ASAP if you haven't yet.
  • Slade continues to be fantastic.
  • Bellowmancer is the best tank in CA.
  • Fizbo's underrated, as his heal/reflection shroud mix is fantastic. I think he gets a bad rep for the art.
  • Soothsayer's still one of the best cards in Rebellion core with that ability mix, but for me she's getting less usage than before.
  • Jicarilla may be the reason for slightly less usage on the Soothsayer. Jica's fantastic though a bit fragile against Kelan.
  • The G Smith is still fantastic (63% win rate!) but less of an auto-play than before.
  • Gramel's a few spots lower but still getting a ton of play and a good win rate.
  • Sylvaran Sentinel is absolutely necessary if you have Heloise, and is just a generally good support unit. 71% win rate baby!!

Win rate >70% with >10 battles

I wanted to also check out some units that have >70% win rate in over 10 battles. Here they are, highlighted.

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Takeaways:

  • Satha Toledo is amazing. 5 mana healer with lookout and 3 damage makes her very powerful. Maybe I need to use her more.
  • The Bolter's got an 80% win rate but only 10 battles, so it's hard to draw conclusions. Great card though.
  • Gallicus is terrific, and a 78% win rate at 32 battles is HUGE. He's a must-have for ranged-only, and also a terrific tank for only 4 mana.
  • Flame For Hire may be better than I thought, though with only 13 battles it may be a bit of a fluke.
  • Lucky Longshot is fantastic with Razi, and that 76% win rate at 68 battles is massive. And of course it mirrors my usage and win rate for Razi very closely.
  • Lord Thanalor!! I love him because of the Rust & Scavenger, which both pair beautifully with Heloise. He's still cheap, go get him!
  • Thunderhoof Nomad is incredible value with Deflect, Strengthen, and Triage at 3 mana .
  • Palifala makes the 70%+ list and while niche I find this Gnome very useful thanks to Mimic and Relentless Strike.
  • Heloiiiiiiise!! 102 battles and a 73% win rate is absolutely elite. Forcefield doing a vanishing act is probably the biggest boon to Heloise.
  • The Continuum Seer's one of the best speed cards in the game.
  • Chaos Rear Guard's 73% win rate is only for 11 battles, so I'll skip.
  • The Sentinel we talked about already, as well as Razi.
  • Honorable mention for Ahna-Chei Botanist, whose kit and speed are terrific for 2 mana.

I'm sure that this data isn't representative of every player, so I would love to see others share their battle data so we can compare and contrast.


AI images in this post were created using Midjourney AI



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16 comments
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(Edited)

Heloiiiiiiise!! 102 battles and a 73% win rate is absolutely elite

You wrote all this, and this is the only thing I read :) LOL

Just kidding. I read it all.

PS, 1460 battles in two season, 730 each playing by hand yourself! Even scholars can't do that!

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Heloise's #1 fan! :)

Yeah, 1460 was...a lot. Not sure I can do it again for the next couple of seasons. At some point it'll affect my "work/life balance" 😅

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Heloise is definitely overpowered atm, we will need to design some cards to tune her down a bit, give her the Yodin treatment lol.

Thanks to @bjangles the counter we did have in final rest no longer does anything to her. I can't give him all the credit for that though, as it was literally my very idea / suggestion to make her immune to it LOL! You're welcome @azircon :P

Satha is a sleeper I've noticed as well... she didn't pair well with the slipspawn since it has forcefield and the lookout would reduce damage but she works great with bellowmancer and the silver leaf mage.

I don't think some of those cards are as great as their win rate would suggest BUT they are obviously very strong at one thing like archery only matches so when you do play them they win. (hence the low battle amount of Anacrhon Bolter)

Gonna take a look at my own %'s now!

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Thanks to bjangles! Haha! I don't know about that. Though I did stake my claim that HTH deserves her time in the sun after the likes of Arkemis, Slipspawn, et al... rendered her damn near useless in Modern 2.0. I think it was the right decision from the team to exclude her from Final Rest's grip. Counters surely to come, just not in the early days of CA

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Yeah HTH definitely needs her time in the sun so I'm glad you guys did that.

Looking forward to seeing your data - hopefully you'll share it!

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Excellent data here BT!

I've not looked at my own metrics just yet but some interesting parallel trends that I've found in my own play - and some that I've not heavily leaned into just yet; but will be trying next session!

Instead of saying it outright, I'll just paste your comment ;)

Ahh... the Skinwalker. @bjangles will say "I told you so". He's awesome. I didn't originally account for the fact that he's ALSO required against Kelan. But his Shapeshift is extraordinary, and the fact that he's an 8 mana rare vs Gramel's 11 mana legendary, makes him more versatile. Shapeshift means he'll keep getting better btw...

Skinwalker's value continuing to advance as additional bloodline-related attributes get added is massive. Homie is super versatile.

Great stuff hombre!

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Hehe, yeah you were right buddy. See you in the arena!

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Great post, I should take a look at mine and do a similar one.

First thing, I 100% agree that Rebellion+CA is more fun than CL+Rebellion. It's true that the format is still very new and I can certainly get bored of it, at some point. For now, I'm having more fun than I ever did in the previous Modern.

Honestly, the thing I often think about is that I wish Tofu wasn't there because I (and my opponent) would use something else instead of always using it. Other than Tofu, I only have Lorkus, Akane, and Cryptic (this one very recently) among the Rebellion legendary Archons.

I don't have all the cards from Rebellion, so my experience is vastly different from yours. Without looking at the stats, I'm pretty sure I still use Tofu more than Lorkus.

One thing I disagree is that Bella counters Tofu. It doesn't, at least, not necessarily. I've made the mistake of assuming it does and I lost to a similar team because it was like they didn't have Thorns but I also didn't have Thorns. But they also had 3 Divine Shields and +2 HP on every unit. And if Earth is also available, it has access to more cards. It counters Tofu if Bella can drag the battle into a Ulund fight where Shield is very strong. Obviously, in rule sets that have Reflect abilities or Blast, Bella is amazing especially because you can use the Reflected type of attack when your opponent might not expect it. She's my favorite Archon from CA, so far.

Halfling Refugee is the best Rebellion reward card and I've made a post about it in the past 😋

Now I need to take a look and share my experiences.

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Thanks man, would love to see your data as well. I'm sure I (and others) would learn a ton from being able to compare different players' learnings.

Interesting take on Bella vs Tofu and I get what you mean. So you're right, "hard counter" probably isn't the right phrase. I do think she's a bit of a deterrent though. Not the only reason we see less Tofu, but one of several reasons. FWIW you can see on https://splinterstats.net/battles.html?season=2025-CA-First-days that Lorkus nowadays gets used about as much as Tofu, but personally I think the trend will go towards more usage of Lorkus (especially if they keep buffing Fire and Death!!).

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She's certainly a deterrent, especially when Earth isn't available!

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Love this! Thank you for all the amazing work you do to support and grow this community. This is invaluable data. You ROCK!!!

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