Stone fell under the Grain Factor

Prologue

Stone is not the most profitable resource anymore. It has finally fallen below the Grain-Factor-Line, and that means that it's more profitable to sell the grain than to use it to produce other resources.

Of course that had to happen just after I finished setting up my ultimate plot of land. That's just my luck. No frustration though, I'm pretty sure it will go the other direction - and I was a bit tired of hunting for Fire and Dragon cards, anyway. Now I can add Water, Nature and Death to the mix, wholeheartedly, knowing that I'm doing myself a favor focusing on grain for the moment.

Most images in the post are taken from Beaker's Land Tool (BLT)

The Facts

Since the launch of Land 1.75 and the following use cases, more and more plots have been activated, in total. There were some down-phases, of course, but overall the trend is quite stable since June, reaching a new all-time-high 50,267 active deeds (meaning, they have at least one unit producing).

Unfortunately, there is no historic data of the stone plots that have been activated historically (since April, historically sounds kind of overkill for 4 months...). But we can have a look at the Boosted Production Points chart, and there is a clear answer to why stone price has finally undercut the Grain-Baseline - the PP came up from 142M to 170M.

It now sits right there with Iron, and a little over wood. Interesting is that although grain is needed for the production of all other resources, the boosted PP is less than double than the rest with 280M bPP.

That explains why there is currently a deficit in Grain production, while Stone has switched to an over-production.

Grain is gaining ground, though - and that although the deficit of 7M/day is so low that it would take 4 years to chew up the current total supply. Oh, and I found the Dark Mode in the BLT.

The deficit is now half of what it was a month ago, from -14M to -7M, and will probably be rising. That will then put pressure on the price of Grain, and consequently pushing the Grain-Factor of the other resources again. And then it starts over.

The Impact

In one of my last posts, I calculated the best setup for my rare stone plot and what the ROI would be. That was two weeks ago, and since then, the expected ROI has fallen from 11.75% to now 9.12% - for stone. For grain, the current price would give an aROI of 10.4%. Quite the difference.

Calculation from the free Land Setup Calculator

That said, it does look bad on paper and would hurt me if I relied on selling my resources now to re-invest the DEC. But I don't, land is not my main focus, and I rather hold all the resources for the long term and see what the future brings.

Leading up to the start of the second conflict, there was also a surge in resource prices as many bought wagon kits to replenish their ranks. That might happen again, though the ever-growing amount of resources will make those spikes less spiky each time.

Conclusion

Now that my rare Stone plot is running nicely and at very high production, I will focus on grain production again, as the current status quo suggests that. Though the grain pool is filled nicely and the overall available resource is high, I still like to be independent, not having to buy from the market. And my new stone workers will need grain.

So, it does make overall sense to me to produce more grain, pile it in the pool, and then withdraw it when the 30 days of penalty are over into the region I need it in.

As for the other resources, I will keep piling them, saving up for a nice payday or when the prices surge again. Maybe I'll put them into pools, but I doubt that - my hunch is that resource value will appreciate more than DEC value, and hence I'll make more if I just leave them around. I could also do half/half. I'll think about it.

Do you have any opinion on stone dropping below the Grain Factor? Will that impact your strategy?

Former posts:

Calculating Land part 1 - How to get your ROI
Calculating Land part 2 - Are pools worth it?
Calculating Land part 3 - Organic Growth
Land Plot Efficiency for non-whales
Card-Production-Coefficient - Combining LPE and ROI
Renting for Land - at what cost?
Risks to my strategy
What do refined resources cost?
Real cost of Wagons
How to perfectly adjust your wagons
Calculating Totem and Title boosts
Calculating Plot Rarity Boost
Setting up a Rare Stone Plot
The Free Land Setup Calculator
Deck Builds & Conflicts

Thank you very much for reading, I hope you enjoyed it at least as much as I enjoyed writing :-D If you have any comments or feedback - please let me know! And don't forget to leave your own posts for me to curate. Thank you very much!

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