Just another Land Math Monday - Making sense of Land part 3

Prologue

So, this whole land thing hast me intrigued. Post 1 was as expected, Stone over grain. But Post 2 was surprising, with selling over pool, with half/half as the best way. But we want to grow. We want to have more, and more, and finally take that dang castle to hang the king and remove the taxes.

So:

What is the best long-term strategy for land?

How long does it take to receive compounding interest?

When you sell your Stone for DEC, we receive an ROI. That is great, but we also want to grow and produce more Stone and get more DEC - so how long would it take us until we get extra income from our ROI?

The moment we start receiving compound interest is when we used the DEC from selling stones to buy a new plot (grain), activate it and place our first BCX of workers - even that 1 BCX will start producing grain which we can then sell on the market. It's a very small compound, but will grow exponentially - yes, exponentially, the thing that starts very shallow and suddenly skyrockets. That's the idea of compounding interest.

Grain Plot: $30
Power Core: $5
Card: $0.30
DEC for staking the card: 87
Total: $35.387 = 35,387 DEC

Stone production: 39,6/h

35,387 DEC / 6.024 DEC/h = 5864 h = 245 days

That's ignoring clearing the land, because Clayboyn will obviously have been so nice and sell it cleared (his plot was the example in the first post).

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Let's do it the other way around - how far can we get with 1 year of interest?

6 DEC per hour means we get 52,560 DEC a year. After plot and core, that leaves us with 17,560 DEC. Each BCX costs us 387 DEC (Card plus staked DEC), so we get 45 BCX staked and working. That's 2151 PP, plus 215 PP Bonus (10%), or

Production Rates Per Production Point Per Hour:
Grain – 0.02
Wood – 0.005
Stone – 0.002
Iron – 0.0005

2366 x 0.02 = 47,32 Grain per hour. Minus feeding those who deserve it, 23,66 grain. Minus feeding the undeserving, 18,928 Grain per hour.

Yes, the beginning of exponential is slow af. But let's boost that to monthly. In the 13th month of our endeavor, we would make:

4,337 DEC from Stone
106.56 DEC from Grain

4543 DEC total.

So, our grain is already 2,4% of what our stone dividend is. Now let's buy cards monthly. We spend all our DEC in month 13 for 11 more BCX, or 577.5 PP, equals 11,55 Grain, minus taxes and such 4.62 grain/h = 3326.4 Grain / month = 26,61 DEC.

So, starting month 14 we'd be at 133 DEC - that's already 25% more on the compounding interest. Month 15 is 160 DEC Compounded interest. This is boring now, you get the idea, here's the excel:

Now, wait a minute - can't we use the extra grain to produce more stone and make a higher return? Yes, of course. There are two ways of doing this, one is to first buy all the plots and energy cores, and then spread BCX evenly so all the grain is directly converted into stone. I'll do an excel for both. Let's stick with this one.

Some data from this sheet

Dividend in the first year: 11,3%
Dividend in the 5th year: 16,5% (5,2% more than 1st)
10th year: 25% (8.5% more than 5th, more than double the dividend in the first year)

Monthly Dividend after 10 years: 2% of the initial investment

Full plot (575 BCX): Starting month 54 it's 579 BCX.

Let's get stoned on grain.

That pun was old before it was written the first time. Anyway. So, we have to buy two plots, and two cores. $30 grain plot, $20 stone plot, $10 Cores, $60 = 60,000 DEC = 10,000h = 416 Days. 9 days to complete the month means 1296 DEC means 3 BCX. Thanks to the tax, the ratio of Grain worker : Stone worker is 5:4.

1 Stone = 0,152 DEC at the moment. I think that's all we need. Let's excel!

This excel is conservative. It does not factor in leftover DEC (everything is rounded down) nor grain. So the real return is even higher. Now, let me amaze you:

Dividend in the first year: 11,3%
Dividend in the 5th year: 19,6% (8,3% more than 1st) [3,1 more than in Grain Compound]
10th year: 37,4% (17,7% more than 5th, more than TRIPLE the dividend in the first year) [12,4% more than in GC]

Monthly Dividend after 10 years: 2,78% of the initial investment [0,78% more than in GC

Full plot (575 BCX): Starting month 56 it's 580 BCX. [two months later than GC]
Max capacity (1035): Month 79 with 1040 BCX.

At that time, we'd have to wait 6 months to start all over again with the next plots.

So, this does not seem exponential yet. After 10 years, the effect is not as big. BUT after 40 years, it is indeed. Here are the 40 year stats:

193% Monthly Dividend
2477% Yearly Dividend
221,236 BCX of cards

Okay, it's not perfectly exponantial as there is the recurring spending on new plots that interrupts. But that as well can be integrated into a formula, I'm pretty sure. Maybe the real math people can figure it out.

Conclusion

To accelerate the flywheel in this one, one has to go in as big as possible. That way, the return comes quicker and everything goes up faster. I'm working on this for 3 hours now, so I'm not in the mood to do the same with a totally different base case - but I might set up my excel sheet in a way that turns it into a legit tool to calculate just that.

My idea (not advice! Do your own math and research and stuff!) for the best land strategy for now:

Buy 1 grain plot with 5 max beta rare and 1 stone plot with 4 max beta rare, sell half of the stone for DEC to put the rest in the pool for around 14 months. Take everything out, buy another grain plot and another stone plot and start working the land with a 5:4 BCX ratio, now always selling all the stone to buy more BCX. Repeat until it's 2065 and you're a Trillionaire thanks to having bough 10,000 SPS in 2025.

That's so far, not counting the future developments. If everything stays exactly like today, that is, and it won't. It will change a lot. Don't be too late!

What's next?

I'm really going to build that calculator to evaluate different ways for my strategy. There are probably some out there, but it's so much fun to build.

Thank you very much for reading, I hope you enjoyed it at least as much as I enjoyed writing :-D If you have any comments or feedback - please let me know! And don't forget to leave your own posts for me to curate. Thank you very much!

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