Doom or Prosperity?

I went deep, deep into Land Math. Took me a few hours to calculate it all, and it's far from perfect, but I was able to get quite a few nice conclusions, tables and plots. I hope you enjoy this bombardment of results!

If you want further explanations on how I got to the results, please comment - happy to explain the process.

Prologue

Land cards are the new thing for Praetoria, a new use case - but beware! There's a catch.

a) there's a limited amount of cards to be printed
b) the cards boost land production

Which leads to c) there will be a turning point when they turn from being a sink to being inflationary.

That was what I wanted to explore, more or less - when is the tipping point? How big is the sink?

Basic Land Facts

Production facts!	Facts Facts Facts
Total Base PP	639 Mio.
Total Boosted PP	1194 Mio.
Total Boost	87%
Most Boosted Ressource	Aura (243%)
Active Plots (with cards)	48,463
Base PP/Plot	13,186
Boosted PP/Plot	24,652
DEC staked	1,540 Mio.
DEC/ active Plot	31,777

The Sink

First, this is the amount of cards available, in both crafting as well as mining with Labor's Luck:

The Cards	CC RF	GF	Max RF	Max GF/BF	Total Maxed	DEC/CC
Common	100,000	380	250	37	287	873
Rare	18,000	220	156	29	185	2,297
Epic	6,000	100	130	23	153	7,925
Legends	100	40	90	17	107	45,938

That's a total of 732 Maxed copies available, if everything is combined. Which won't be the case, but I had to make a lot of assumptions to get a general idea.

To mint those, the following amount of resources is needed (the sink):

Resource	Resource for Crafting	DEC/1000	Total DEC
Grain	2,300 Mio.	20.68	47.564 Mio.
Wood	540 Mio.	79.74	43.059 Mio.
Stone	90 Mio.	85.1	7.659 Mio.
Iron	40 Mio.	400.31	16.012 Mio.
Aura	95 Mio.	3903	370.824 Mio.
Cinder	142.5 Mio.	1225	174.5 Mio.
Total	$419,689 USD		659.682 Mio. DEC

$420,000! 660,000,000 DEC! That's quite the sink! Applies only if all cards are crafted. And those are equivalents - the cards are made out of in-game assets.

Trivia and extra info

Aura is calculated based on the cost of resources it takes to produce them. As we stated above, Aura has a normal boost of almost 250%. That is included in the cost.

Aura cost without boost: 9759 DEC/1000 Aura
Aura cost with boost: 3903 DEC/Aura

Cinder was calculated with the currently cheapest card to burn, Epic RF Chaos Legion for $0,117/CC.

PP and Energy

These two are one-time-inflation, if all cards are crafted. It's not a ongoing effect, but just applies once.

Production Points

The new cards get a 2x boost, as I just found out - hence editing here.

All cards together, with respective GF and BF PP, bring 4,554,620 PP to the game. That's 0.6% of the current base PP - so from a PP standpoint, it's no inflation.

Energy

All cards have Dark Energy bonuses. That means, DEC can be unstaked and enter the market. If we take the maxed cards, we get the following result:

Card	Max Reduction	Maxed Cards	Max DEC Reduction
Common	-50%	287	4.56 Mio.
Rare	-99%	185	5.84 Mio.
Epic	-80%	153	3.9 Mio.
Legends	-99%	107	3.4 Mio.
Total			17.69 Mio.

That's around 1.15% of the currently staked DEC. Even if we add the 0.6% from base PP, we're still at 1,75% - not even per year. Just once.

Plotting

This one was a little hard. Took me a while, and I'm not that sure that I did it right - though it makes sense. I used the bonuses that each card provides to calculate the inflationary effects that the cards have.

Boosted PP: 25k (average mentioned above)
Boosted PP/Card: 5k

The PP for the Land Cards were boosted with the average of 87%, plus the 2x. Meaning, 1 CC Farmhand has 18.7 PP instead of 5 base PP.

All cards lose in the beginning. The best option is the Miner for Aura, using the calculation of aura price above - which is for production, and does not reflect in the sales. That's why I chose the Iron option for the Miner here.

If we take into account the cost of each card, the most efficient card levels are:

Card	Level	Days to Break Even
Farmhand	10	1847
Druid	8	1914
Ox Grain	5	1433
Miner Aura	4	339

Again, Aura is to be taken cautiously. But with Iron, the Miner needs 5357 days to break even at level 4. It's calculated based on DEC, so it fluctuates with the price.

Deflation or Inflation and if yes, when?

Finally. I need another beer before this. Just a second. ... Ready.

Now, for this one there are 2 approaches. One using DEC, and the other using the resources themselves. Let's start with DEC overall, and we treat all cards as RF maxed - meaning, in reality, the tipping point is reached a little faster due to the higher PP of GF/BF.

All in DEC	Common	Rare	Epic	Legendary
Maxed Cards	287	185	153	107
Max Extra DEC/h	2261	1063	1563	420
Daily Extra DEC	54,269	25,529	37,528	10,094
Total/Day	127,420
Days to fill Sink	5177

14 years. Nice. It's a sink then! At least for DEC... but that is bound to the price of resources. And a big chunk of the sink is resources - only 25% of the sink is actual DEC in form of Cinder, or cards bought to burn. Which isn't a real sink, as the DEC just goes to another account, and only a part is taken out of the equation.

So, the same for resources. Each card on their best resource.

Resources	Common	Rare	Epic	Legend	Legend Aura
Maxed Cards	287	185	153	107	107
Max Extra Resource	109k Grain	40,5k Wood	75.5k Grain	1.8k Iron	1.8k Aura
Daily	2,624k	971k	1,814k	42.7k	42.7k
Total/Day	4,438 k	same	incl. in Common	same	same
Days to fill the sink	518	556		937	2,224

Not taking into account bloodlines. Nor stone, nobody cares about stone these days.

1.5 years for wood. 1.5 years for Grain. Around 3 years for Iron, and 6 years for Aura.

Is that a sink or not?

Conclusion

Wow. This was fun. Around 1000 cells in 115 lines and 20 columns in Excel. The beer helped. Now, to be clear - there are a million variations of this. Depending on how many cards are crafted, how many combined, what plots they're on, how high the boost is, and so on. But by using averages, I think I got somewhat close to what might be the turn-out.

I'm glad that this sink was implemented. I'm sure that the team will come up with several new use cases in the next 1.5 years which will be a sink on their own, making this calculation obsolete.

And yes, there's real use to this. Especially for lower level players - if you don't have an average plot, the land cards can actually be worth a lot more. 5k PP per card is quite a bit, and it affects the benefit of each land card. The lower PP the card that you replace is, the bigger the relative effect of the land card.

Me, personally - I'm totally going to use my cards. And I'm going to make more. Especially the Farmhand. Cheap and effective!

5% of the rewards will go to @beaker007 for creating the tool, and 2% to @saydie for free Dividers - Click here. Always grateful for all of that! Remember to support those who give you cool stuff for free 😉

Former Calculation Posts

Calculations around Land

Basic Land Card Calculations

Stone is a losing game

Land - Setting it up.

Calculating Land part 1 - How to get your ROI
Calculating Land part 2 - Are pools worth it?
Calculating Land part 3 - Organic Growth
Land Plot Efficiency for non-whales
Card-Production-Coefficient - Combining LPE and ROI
Renting for Land - at what cost?
What do refined resources cost?
Calculating Totem and Title boosts
Calculating Plot Rarity Boost
Setting up a Rare Stone Plot

My perfect plot - Conclusion of my calculations

Land Plot Calculator

Thank you very much for reading, I hope you enjoyed it at least as much as I enjoyed writing :-D If you have any comments or feedback - please let me know! And don't forget to leave your own posts for me to curate. Thank you very much!

If you don't play the game yet, you can use my referral: Click here for referral :-)

Dividers by Saydie - Click here. Always grateful for those!