Grain Factor

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(Edited)

Grain Factor

As per the land whitepaper: The Secret of Praetoria each land resource has different production difficulty based on the Production Point (PP) of the cards you stake into the plot. Grain is the easiest resource to produce because it has the highest production rate (0.02 units per Production Point per hour). Other resources like Wood, Stone, and Iron have lower production rates, making them harder to farm. Here is the Production Rate and Relative difficulty in tabular form:

ResourceProduction Rate (per PP per hour)Relative Difficulty
Grain0.02Lowest, easiest to produce in volume
Wood0.0054x harder than Grain
Stone0.00210x harder than Grain
Iron0.000540x harder than Grain

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When you go the Land SPL Stats webpage, the first thing you see in the boxes with resource prices, and followed by a plot we call The Grain Factor Plot, looks very similar to the plot above.

The Grain Factor measures how a resource’s (Wood, Stone, or Iron) market price compares to its production difficulty relative to Grain in Splinterlands. It is calculated by converting the resource’s market price into its Grain Equivalent (the number of Grain units it’s worth based on Grain’s current price) and dividing that by the resource’s production difficulty (4x for Wood, 10x for Stone, 40x for Iron). A Grain Factor of 1 means the resource’s price aligns with its production difficulty relative to Grain; higher or lower values indicates the resource is fundamentally overvalued or undervalued.

The fundamental premise of this chart is the understand the price of every natural resources with respect to the price of Grain. That is why Grain price in this chart is horizontal white dashed line (highly distinct and visible) along the X-axis at 1.0. We call this the Grain Baseline. If a resource is trading above the grain baseline it is fundamentally overvalued. If a resource is trading below the grain baseline it is fundamentally undervalued. So currently Iron and Wood are undervalued by about a quarter (25%), while Stone is overvalued by about a third (33%).

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Explanation based on Today's market price

I find it is best to understand the concept by calculating something simple. We can look up today's resource prices on the same landing page at Land SPL Stats. We can just put 1000 in each resource boxes, one at a time, and hit enter.

ResourcePrice (DEC per 1000)Price (DEC per unit)Grain EquivalentProduction DifficultyGrain Factor
Grain7.870.007871.000011.00
Wood23.930.023933.039940.76
Stone104.370.1043713.2592101.33
Iron236.370.2363730.0356400.75

So, those numbers at the right most column are the Grain Factors for today. @beaker007 started collecting this data from March 20, 2025. We now have more than three month worth of data, which you see on the landing page at Land SPL Stats and that is the same plot (with a twist) on the first image of this post.

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Stone Anomaly

I am introducing a new term, as I love to do that! :)

People have been observing this for a while, but no one defined it. Therefore, I see an opportunity to create a new term, a new factor! If you look at the grain factor plot historically, you can easily see that stone remained overvalued by a large amount almost always. If we consider just the production difficulty, Stone is not the most difficult resource to produce, that is Iron. So all else being equal, Iron should be the most expensive resource (and it is if you look at the raw price), but it is not relatively speaking in terms of Grain Factor. Stone Anomaly addresses this problem.

Stone Anomaly is defined as the difference between the price of Stone in Grain Factor, and the average price of Wood and Iron in Grain Factor. In other words, it is the shaded area in the first plot, and the plot below.

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I also plotted the numerical value of Stone Anomaly as a step plot in light blue with labels for better visualization. Notice the Stone Anomaly is much higher after the launch of midnight potion, averaging 0.77. Earlier it was 0.49 on average. In fact if you look carefully at the plot, some of the high number at the beginning of the data collection could be considered edge effect. Majority of the time in April and May, the Stone Anomaly was about 0.3.

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Cause of Stone Anomaly

Here I can get into pure speculation, something that I don't like to do often. However, since this is not directly price speculation, I guess it can be okay. I can't find, any stone whale holding stone to artificially inflate the price. So my guess is that the 32% of Praetoria that is currently active, is depleted in Stone, and therefore, the 78% of Praetoria that is currently inactive, is enriched in Stone. Overall, it must even out, because the process of creation of these resources are by random number generators which ensure normal distribution.

Now, I have no idea if this is correct or not, but it is the best educated guess that I can come up with the data I have. It is not possible to know exactly until more of Praetoria is active. Let us get there quickly though!

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Grain Factor Table

I modified/rearranged the data, that can be downloaded from the first page of Land SPL Stats, and made a simpler table. I also calculated two additional columns. The Average Wood-Iron column is just an average between the Wood and Iron column, basically represents a mid-point between the two resources. Stone Anomaly, the last column, is the difference between Stone Grain Factor and the Av. Wood-Iron.

DateGrainWoodStoneIronAv. Wood-IronStone Anomaly
2025-03-2012.052.682.42.2250.455
2025-03-2111.822.512.282.050.46
2025-03-2210.962.851.641.31.55
2025-03-2310.792.391.321.0551.335
2025-03-2410.792.151.281.0351.115
2025-03-2511.032.061.181.1050.955
2025-03-2611.012.521.131.071.45
2025-03-2710.862.31.020.941.36
2025-03-2810.721.940.950.8351.105
2025-03-2910.721.590.780.750.84
2025-03-3010.591.220.730.660.56
2025-03-3110.621.140.760.690.45
2025-04-0110.50.990.660.580.41
2025-04-0210.50.930.660.580.35
2025-04-0310.480.90.670.5750.325
2025-04-0410.530.860.660.5950.265
2025-04-0510.50.810.640.570.24
2025-04-0610.50.910.690.5950.315
2025-04-0710.470.90.670.570.33
2025-04-0810.460.910.680.570.34
2025-04-0910.470.840.690.580.26
2025-04-1010.480.830.660.570.26
2025-04-1110.470.840.660.5650.275
2025-04-1210.460.830.650.5550.275
2025-04-1310.51.050.660.580.47
2025-04-1410.570.970.730.650.32
2025-04-1510.631.020.780.7050.315
2025-04-1610.630.90.780.7050.195
2025-04-1710.580.970.730.6550.315
2025-04-1810.590.990.760.6750.315
2025-04-1910.621.080.820.720.36
2025-04-2010.671.10.870.770.33
2025-04-2110.741.120.880.810.31
2025-04-2210.931.240.980.9550.285
2025-04-2310.91.170.980.940.23
2025-04-2410.861.190.990.9250.265
2025-04-2510.831.150.90.8650.285
2025-04-2610.811.10.950.880.22
2025-04-2710.831.140.960.8950.245
2025-04-2810.781.110.960.870.24
2025-04-2910.761.150.980.870.28
2025-04-3010.81.531.110.9550.575
2025-05-0110.841.591.050.9450.645
2025-05-0210.811.591.040.9250.665
2025-05-0310.861.541.050.9550.585
2025-05-0410.971.541.11.0350.505
2025-05-0510.951.781.111.030.75
2025-05-0610.951.691.11.0250.665
2025-05-0710.941.81.181.060.74
2025-05-0810.931.751.121.0250.725
2025-05-0910.951.691.081.0150.675
2025-05-1010.9521.21.0750.925
2025-05-1110.921.871.151.0350.835
2025-05-1210.931.881.141.0350.845
2025-05-1310.971.931.161.0650.865
2025-05-14111.821.11.050.77
2025-05-1510.971.841.11.0350.805
2025-05-1610.981.851.121.050.8
2025-05-1711.041.861.141.090.77
2025-05-1811.011.811.151.080.73
2025-05-1911.081.91.181.130.77
2025-05-2011.061.951.171.1150.835
2025-05-2111.041.931.131.0850.845
2025-05-2210.931.740.880.9050.835
2025-05-2310.961.710.930.9450.765
2025-05-2410.941.770.930.9350.835
2025-05-2510.931.920.910.921
2025-05-2610.911.880.890.90.98
2025-05-2710.91.850.90.90.95
2025-05-2810.911.880.90.9050.975
2025-05-2910.841.920.910.8751.045
2025-05-3010.871.940.910.891.05
2025-05-3110.891.910.90.8951.015
2025-06-0110.881.870.90.890.98
2025-06-0210.831.780.820.8250.955
2025-06-0310.861.840.840.850.99
2025-06-0410.831.780.830.830.95
2025-06-0510.711.650.810.760.89
2025-06-0610.81.470.770.7850.685
2025-06-0710.81.470.770.7850.685
2025-06-0810.751.450.760.7550.695
2025-06-0910.751.470.760.7550.715
2025-06-1010.781.470.760.770.7
2025-06-1110.791.450.790.790.66
2025-06-1210.751.40.760.7550.645
2025-06-1310.751.520.770.760.76
2025-06-1410.741.470.760.750.72
2025-06-1510.741.440.750.7450.695
2025-06-1610.731.460.750.740.72
2025-06-1710.721.40.770.7450.655
2025-06-1810.751.360.790.770.59
2025-06-1910.731.320.760.7450.575
2025-06-2010.721.290.750.7350.555
2025-06-2110.711.290.750.730.56
2025-06-2210.711.310.750.730.58

Anyone can download this table and data and make their own analysis. Hope this helps!

Finally three definitions:

Production Difficulty measures how much harder it is to produce a resource (Wood, Stone, Iron) compared to Grain in Splinterlands, based on the ratio of their production rates per Production Point per hour (Grain: 0.02, Wood: 0.005, Stone: 0.002, Iron: 0.0005).

The Grain Factor shows how a resource’s (Wood, Stone, Iron) market price compares to its production difficulty relative to Grain in Splinterlands. It’s calculated by dividing the resource’s Grain Equivalent (its price in Grain units) by its production difficulty (4x for Wood, 10x for Stone, 40x for Iron), with a value of 1 meaning the price matches the difficulty.

The Stone Anomaly refers to Stone’s overvalued market price on the basis of Grain Factor, it is measured as the difference between Stone Price in Grain Factor and the mid-point or average Wood-Iron price in Grain Factor.

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32 comments
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I should be happy then, as so many of my 200 lands were Stone? Nice!

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Stone is currently the most valuable resource. I recommend putting the stone in internal pools paired with DEC, as opposed to holding and selling them. Stone also get the maximum fees due to high trading volume.

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Actually I sell it mostly for DEC, but pool may be a good option too. I will start to allocate 50% to it.

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Good idea. In flat to down market, pool does better

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I do have much less as I sell stone to get aura. I got loads of stone and need iron and wood instead.

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I still haven't had time to dig into my production and see if I can add some pieces here and there. I did some cursory evaluations, but not the deep dive that I have been thinking about taking. I'll probably still be saying that three months from now, so I really only have myself to blame...

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I hope you are claiming your production every 7 days. Otherwise plots get full and they get lost

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Ah, I probably don't. Good reminder!

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Its slowly turning around, market is doing its thing...

one thing that could be interesting, if you have runi and its on a natural resource, you should move it to the resource that is above grain baseline. This way you get the best out the 100% boost.

And i think there is not a cooldown anymore on moving runi around... or is there still the 3 day cooldown?

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So it seems that the market is starting to address the "stone anomaly", I guess that is to be expected now that you have flushed it out into the open recently.

I really enjoyed the deep dive into Beakers Land tool on Splinterlands 101, it's a very powerful tool, but one I didn't full grasp until it was explained fully

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Yes it is very powerful tool. The best there is on land related stuff. I am glad you are using it.

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I'm glad you made a post on this, more people will see it now :)

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This is the PP Based Price Metric or "PP Value" which I've been posting about since March :)

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https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@captaindingus/splinterlands-resource-tracker-snapshot-32325-95percent-of-rewards-go-to-spsdao-5percent-go-to-beaker007-for-his-link

It even got it's own breakout on the 25th 😄

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https://peakd.com/splinterlands/@captaindingus/splinterlands-resource-tracker-snapshot-32525-50percent-of-the-rewards-to-spsdao

It's not every day we get away with measuring things by their PP's 😅😂

Cheers to you and @beaker007 - I'll keep posting the Land Updates and the weekly Snapshots on Wednesdays and I'll be keeping an eye out for you and beaker to post updates as well :)

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Question is why there is no net turning on of plots at land for last 3 months. I know that I have turned on 250 plots during this period. But that also means someone else must have turned off many plots to balance my share. Because overall it is perfectly flat.

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Investigate this is you have time. I don’t know why.

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(Edited)

My hypothesuspicion (do you like that Portmanteau?) I do and it just hit me as I was typing lol!

I believe it is due to the combined efforts of yourself, beaker and Jedo.

Thanks to you guys, I personally deactivated a lot of plots that were underperforming and drastically increased my Efficiency!

However... this means my "active" plots dropped from like 28 to 9 (10 now?)

This is probably happening across the Regions and why it's a Zero Sum equation at the moment.

Nothing more than extrapolation of data from you, my personal experience and the community reaction to your efforts.

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Quality is better than quantity.

That has always been my motto!

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Yessir - it was definitely due to the eye opening from you, beaker and jedo that I was like "ok... it's time to rip the bandaid off!"

Helped a ton!!

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Spread the word. Even activating one plot in a good way is better than zero plot.

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Thank you for the charts. I have been holding myself back from buying more Stone. I only buy enough to use on my few Plots. The rest I'm happy to buy more freely as they have a lower Grain Factor.

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Stone currently is the most valuable resource, by far. It is about 70% better :)

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I was wondering the other day, but didn't have time to calculate: When would it make more sense to produce grain instead of wood? It's not the Grain-Factor-Line, I calculated that once I think. If you know, great, if not, I'll calculate another day.

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It’s a variable answer depending on situation. But for you, until grain is 4X expensive while wood being constant, a scenario that is highly unlikely to nearly impossible

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So, basically when wood reaches a Grain Factor of 0,25. That is indeed unlikely, for now and hopefully forever.

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Yes. Highly unlikely.

We have 7.3 Billion of surplus grain. It will take more than a year to burn through that stockpile. We can forget about grain rallying anytime soon

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So, new strategy - buying a lot of stone plots, rent cards, buy grain for them and drain that surplus while hammering down stone price, destroying the system. And then become rich with the two grain plots I have. Evil laugh, the curtain falls.

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Unlikely. The only person who can manipulate land market is Vugtis.

He alone owns 1.2 Billion grain and 24 million stone

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Unlikely, but not impossible! Just watch for around... 53 years and 2 months. Estimated.

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  • Staked HIVE (HP): 6.03
  • Rewards/Stake Co-efficient (KE): 106.12

Recent Activity:


@stemgeeks Wallet:

  • Author Rewards: 4,391.77
  • Curation Rewards: 304.26
  • Staked HIVE (HP): 0.00
  • Rewards/Stake Co-efficient (KE): 4,696,032.00 (Extremely Suspicious)

Recent Activity:

  • Sent to themarkymark -1.556 HBD (Jun 14, 2024)
  • Claim rewards: 1.556 HBD, 5.912 HP (Jun 14, 2024)
  • Withdraw vesting from @stemgeeks to @ipromote 6.160 HIVE (Jun 8, 2024)
  • Sent to themarkymark -1.601 HBD (Jun 7, 2024)
  • Withdraw vesting from @stemgeeks to @ipromote 6.157 HIVE (Jun 1, 2024)
  • Sent to ipromote -1.618 HBD (May 31, 2024)

@theycallmemarky Wallet:

  • Author Rewards: 458.89
  • Curation Rewards: 0.00
  • Staked HIVE (HP): 0.00
  • Rewards/Stake Co-efficient (KE): 458,886.00 (Highly Suspicious)

Recent Activity:


@apeminingclub Wallet:

  • Author Rewards: 432.57
  • Curation Rewards: 2,829.11
  • Staked HIVE (HP): 30.51
  • Rewards/Stake Co-efficient (KE): 106.90

Recent Activity:

  • Scheduled unstake (power down): ~2.351 HIVE (in 4 days, remaining 7 weeks)

  • Total Staked HIVE: 1,292.019

  • Delegated HIVE: +1,261.508

  • Withdraw vesting from @apeminingclub to @blockheadgames 2.348 HIVE (10 days ago)

  • Claim rewards: 0.290 HP (10 days ago)

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