Conclave Arcana Conflict is Live!

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(Edited)

Here are the Airdrop expectations

Many people asked me who is getting how many airdrop cards. The number is not fixed, as people can always add more cards to the wagons. However, it is likely, that most people will add cards to the wagons as soon as possible, because there is a time factor associated with me. If you are late, you will going to lose conflict points (rp_per_hour column), or rather accumulate less conflicts points.

Every 100,000 points earns you 1 entry toward the Conflict airdrop.
A guaranteed drop is awarded after 800 entries.

As of right now, the table below is the current list of people staking cards at the wagons. You can see my name in the 11th spot, and I am expecting 48 airdrop cards with all the CA and RB cards that I have staked in the wagons. It is too much to put all the accounts in the table, so I decided to put the people who will get at least 11 cards (to make a max legendary).

playerrp_per_hourPotential Airdrop
bravetofu13,423,644.00121
cryptomancer11,248,184.00101
vugtis10,881,391.0098
kesryn9,155,650.0082
yabapmatt7,427,966.0067
meredorn7,183,441.0065
lovingthemoo6,994,523.0063
hanv5,891,361.0053
lorkus5,818,507.0052
jeffopenscards5,573,585.0050
azircon5,314,844.0048
thebadwitch5,078,870.0046
sprstoner4,967,792.0045
housewifeftw4,926,749.0044
trashpanda54384,926,619.0044
ducecrypto4,347,505.0039
dratek4,341,242.0039
maybenexttime4,284,764.0039
nullfame4,233,890.0038
cradle2game4,073,104.0037
zoicsash4,032,702.0036
michealb3,967,464.0036
olebulls3,843,417.0035
pfork3,734,276.0034
maisiewss3,709,758.0033
neoxian3,703,074.0033
xsuilx3,630,602.0033
woody-5753,568,995.0032
jesterago3,407,293.0031
jmaan3,304,851.0030
supermuffin3,037,960.0027
dashadow212,936,409.0026
blazekos2,917,435.0026
bulldog12052,890,919.0026
ajpl2,552,488.0023
magehan2,447,753.0022
kyl32,238,927.0020
stechestrasse2,123,873.0019
brybro272,083,791.0019
jayvee722,009,309.0018
mastershonuff1,857,393.0017
twotaps1,800,742.0016
samwiseg1,790,494.0016
martinbkenny1,785,743.0016
thegcc1,773,569.0016
ank20201,758,988.0016
jpal471,698,577.0015
captaindingus1,678,141.0015
shermanator19741,674,239.0015
horsebox1,662,474.0015
nftdiver1,644,625.0015
imperij44271,591,592.0014
redxvipers1,559,322.0014
aussieninja1,554,501.0014
garute1,493,750.0013
instamental1,484,940.0013
herdinium1,472,957.0013
lastsword1,461,817.0013
penass1,459,900.0013
cav01,453,745.0013
nynate1,450,333.0013
v-mule1,448,737.0013
justenjoy1,447,687.0013
splinception1,447,687.0013
masteryawner1,445,055.0013
dejota1,414,863.0013
notaboutme1,365,738.0012
zingre1,344,374.0012
chiboulette1,324,944.0012
nardian1,297,962.0012
beffeater1,275,214.0011
affliction1,251,762.0011
shakeyp1,246,824.0011
bjangles1,230,770.0011
tomathellama1,174,042.0011
tidepodoreos1,171,077.0011

But what about the rest?

They are counted! Here is the frequency distribution of all the accounts that will get a airdrop cards. Currently total 1570 accounts has active wagons with cards staked in them. However, only 548 account have the minimum PP staked in the wagon right now to get at least 1 airdrop!

I made a frequency distribution table for the 548 accounts that is getting at least 1 airdrop card. The way to read the chart above and the data table below is as follows:

  • 96 accounts will receive 1 card each
  • 155 accounts will receive 2 cards each
  • 4 accounts will receive 11 cards each
  • 12-15 airdrops will be awarded to 25 accounts
  • 51-100 airdrops will be awarded to 8 accounts
  • 100+ airdrops will go to bravetofu and cryptomancer :)
  • Currently I am seeing 3566 total airdrop cards will be using this method, which is an approximation
Guaranteed AirdropNo of Accounts
196
2155
359
437
528
633
721
810
921
1010
114
12 - 1525
16 - 3020
31 - 5019
51 - 1008
100+2

Hope this helps!

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30 comments
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Quick work using the api!

Is there any data for how many wagons each person has, was just interested to see how many people would be wiped out with their guaranteed airdrops and have to repair most/all their wagons and if it affected low end or high end more?

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Anecdotally I'm using 43 wagons to get 13 guaranteed and between 0-13 non-guaranteed cards... so if I was lucky and got 20 copies of Zryx I'd have to repair 50%ish of my wagons.

I'd say the low end would be affected more because the high end would have more Gold Foil, Black Foil and Arcane cards so they'd need proportionally less wagons than people without those cards.

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That's the thing, more conflict points on less wagons should mean the top players lose proportionately more wagons, of course they get more airdrops to sell on to the market (or don't really mind paying $5 a wagon because the value of airdrop is more)

me for example I have 1 guarantee from 26 wagons - losing 1 wagon probably cost me 1000 p/per hour i may be an outlier and other people getting 1 drop may have 5 black foils on 1 wagon so lose 100% - but its just something i thought would be interesting to see

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Oh, you're right! They'd have proportionally less wagons overall compared to the low end... but they'd lose proportionally more of their wagons to their cards. I needed to take that extra step in my thought process.

I noticed that you can't purchase wagons with DEC anymore, so everyone will have to have land to make their own or purchase at market rates. Should be very interesting to see how it all falls out.

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(Edited)

Is this just the guaranteed cards or have you added in likelihood of getting non-guaranteed cards?

I've got an estimated 13 guaranteed cards in the first CA Conflicts Airdrop

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But in the list above you've got me at 14... so is it 13 guaranteed + 1 non-guaranteed or something different? I'll probably have 87 chances which statistically might net me another 13ish cards if I'm lucky.

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(Edited)

You're at 13,99 cards... I recommend staking just a little more :-D If you get only 9 more chances in this conflict, you have the 14th card secure (11,200 / 800 = 14). That's only 900,000 Points over 30 days, so 30,000 a day, 1250 per hour - 10 CC of a common GF, 3 CC rare gold foil, 1 epic gold foil - that's it. Oh, you have to make up for the lost hours, so I think 1 GF-E from CA does the trick :-)

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Thank you!

I worked out that I had 13.99 in my season report when I was doing the math, and in my head I just rounded down to 13 instead of realizing I could so easily round up to 14.

I've now bought and staked a GF CA Aranduriel Epic with a CP of 2,500 so now I can see this...

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So thanks for that! Thanks for bringing the math to me!!!

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You're most welcome! Glad I could help :-) Would've been a shame to miss out on that CC because of 1250 CP :-D

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The actual airdrop can't be half :)

So there is rounding. It may or may not work in your favor.

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Hahaha, you're right. @beelzael explained that I was sitting at 13.99 which is an obvious rounding that I've now fixed to get it over 14. Thanks for putting this post out, I would have missed out on that extra 0.01.

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Got quite efficient with my set-up :-) I'll always see how the next cards go, but I doubt that I'll do the investment for another GC. 111,112 points cost around $600, I don't see me spending that any time soon. On top, I don't see me going into high-competitive play either, so a lvl 2 legend will probably be enough. I might be thinking again when there are summoners. I always need summoners.

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Good luck to you sir!

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Interesting that only about a third of active wagons are going to get an airdrop. What about the rest did they give up and are just not going to go for airdrops this time?

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They don’t have the minimum CP to get the airdrop. It can’t be less than 1. A card is an integer.

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Did you catch this stream yet?

https://www.youtube.com/live/ZtK3krE9CdU?si=91s8OZ0E0tMwT5EP

I wasn’t aware of the Blackfoil strategy using very few wagons—that was eye-opening. 😅 Fortunately, the team recognized the issue and mentioned they'll be looking into it.

It just goes to show: with every new release, we "players" always seem to find an edge to optimize — or even abuse — the system beyond its intended design.

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I was there live till midnight!

That strategy is probably 8 accounts and not much of a strategy. @stever82 in that stream blown everything way out of proportion. Most of his arguments was directed towards personal greed and entitlement that he enjoys.

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Thanks for trying. But he seems not to agree at all.

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